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With an increasing capital flight from the country, the economists are not happy

При усиливающемся бегстве капиталов из страны, прогноз экономистов не радует

Vladimir Putin confirmed that the information in the message to the Federal Assembly tasks will be the development programme of the country in the next 6 years. Commenting on the officially announced results of presidential elections, he reiterated that Russia needs a real breakthrough, and even “we need a consistent deep changes, well thought out steps that will yield sustainable results today and in the future.” The President admitted that,”immediately, right now, to change everything overnight,” it would be “a nice gesture”.

And it was clear even at the time of announcement of the Message to the Federal Assembly. Many experts immediately raised questions: where to take money for everything. In particular, only to “flash Russia” new roads, plans to spend 11 trillion rubles, almost twice more than in the previous six.

And this in terms of sanctions, when able to borrow from Western banks is very limited. To improve health and life expectancy of citizens, according to the message, plan to pay more attention to the environment, investing in the modernization of hundreds of companies. And the interest on the mortgage should be reduced from 10% now to 7-8%. And so on.

The question arises, where will the money that we for all of these purposes are somehow not enough and in the most prosperous years of extremely high prices for oil?

— Initially the first part of the message to the Federal Assembly were few specifics, says economist, Professor of international Finance MGIMO Valentin Katasonov. Mostly the slogans that have no visible strategy. Was not affected by the most painful points of our economic life. In particular, Putin once again neatly avoided the issues associated with capital flight. Was said about the fact that we will impose strict control over transboundary movement of capital. That the problem of de-offshorization of the economy have not been solved. Not a word about the fact that the activities of our monetary authorities is strangling our economy and serves the economy of the metropolis — USA. The list goes on.

Not yet resolved the above problems, all the talk about the digital economy, economic growth will remain empty words. Even if you really start some economic growth (though more often for it are issued by the registry), the beneficiaries of this growth will be all the same oligarchs, who are day and night engaged in the fascinating business of pumping capital from Russia. Recently was published the balance of payments data for the first two months of the current year. The magnitude of the net outflow of capital increased more than two times compared to the same period last year. No anti-Russian sanctions, nor Vice versa Kremlin Amnesty “prodigal oligarchs” did not affect the process of capital flight from the country.

“SP”: — the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov during a meeting with Vladimir Putin on March 22, said that preparing for some suggestions in the area of taxes, which “will allow to increase its resource base of enterprises, increasing profits of companies and thus create sources of investment”…

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— Such talk we have been hearing for twenty years. Until we close the giant hole through which funneling the national wealth, all other measures will resemble attempt to fill a leaky bucket.

No matter how growing GDP, how else was the proceeds from the sale of hydrocarbons, the people of Russia from this life do not become any better until this situation is corrected. Examining the balance of payments, Bank for 2017, I came to the conclusion that this year alone the country has lost 106 billion dollars. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, since balance of payments statistics of the Russian Federation does not fix the illegal withdrawal of capital. If this area was cleaned up, we didn’t have to wrestle with where to take money on improving health, education, roads, etc.

— What tasks identified in the message to the Federal Assembly Putin is correct, no doubt, — said General Director of the Institute of regional problems Dmitry Zhuravlev. Other just imagine. The fight against poverty, improvement of infrastructure and modern technologies — without this the development of Russia is impossible. It is a strategy. And it is correct. But with tactics, really, it’s much more difficult.

The offer of siluanova to try to improve the system of collection of taxes is correct. But in practice, in Russia small and medium business tax evasion not because he wants to hide more money from the passion for hoarding, but because often, that he pay them nothing. And more than one skin with the sheep will not remove. So whatever came up in the Finance Ministry is unlikely that small and medium businesses will be able more than now to fill the “budget pods.”

The second source of investment. Public-private partnership. Theoretically — can also serve to fill the state budget, but in practice private businesses to invest in order to enrich himself, not to enrich the state. Still can not believe that private investors are ready to invest in technology that should make a profit. But it is unlikely that the business will invest in the construction of free roads or the development of health care in rural areas. That is, the business is interesting, roughly speaking, to invest in toll roads and paid medicine.

Again, if you put a task “to stitch Russia” new modern roads, the desired borrowing — internal or external. For the first we simply have no cash, we will not give to the required extent, given the political situation.

“SP”: — That is money for the development of the country is not there?

— If I was given such a task, I would have gone by Lavrenty Beria, as a now to come up with is simply impossible. It is necessary to concentrate funds on the technological innovation, immediate and large-scale implemented. It is also not a quick way, but at least it can be done if we act purposefully. If the plant is built, which, for example, makes it more cheap and high-quality asphalt in huge volumes, it is, of course, will contribute to a “needling Russia.” Another issue is that too not for a year, and maybe not for ten. But in the end the goal can come. This is the only way. Finance, as the main instrument of raising a developing economy is not effective.

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“SP”: — meanwhile, the government has discussed the idea of raising the income tax to 15%. Is this the first sign that in the future the state will again try to increase tax revenues at the expense of the population?

— Unfortunately, it is very likely. Because the logic of the situation in which we find ourselves, such that other sources for financing the construction of new roads, simply no. But the trouble is that tax increases the total amount of the collected sums in the modern world does not increase or increases only slightly. This are the first courses of economic faculties. Along with the growth of the percentage of a tax increasing the number of evading it.

“SP”: — the Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that in the next 8 years will decrease in defense spending, and, in the end, they will be perhaps lower than in some European countries — 3% of GDP. Maybe here hoping to get additional money for roads and hospitals?

— It may very well be. The idea is beautiful. But a large part of defence expenditure is spent on promising military developments. If they quit, then all previously invested will be lost. Of course, you can go the Soviet way, when the “Baumanka” is referred to the Ministry of agriculture. Of course, if you stuff the military research institutes in different fields, formally military spending and fall. And in fact, little will change. It is possible that we will produce slightly fewer tanks and planes and just build more roads. But fundamentally the situation will not change.

“SP”: — Minister Siluanov said that “in health care budget will be focused primarily on helping the needy, instead, the old Soviet principle — all a little bit” might mean that some new monetization when the majority of the population will be forced to pay more for medicine, and a small group of beneficiaries will actually receive slightly more?

— Yes, under this system, the neediest may be relatives of the employees of social services. Especially in remote towns and villages. And if “playing with the categories” for example to give less to retirees and more large, in a country with our income level it would mean that a significant group of people now living at risk of poverty in the end will be beyond it.

On the contrary we need to increase incomes so that people could buy higher-quality domestic products of the same industry. Only in this way will develop their production.

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