Apparently, work on the economic part of the election program in the Kremlin is in the process of completion. The main areas are the health of the nation, income growth, educational development, the fight against corruption. But after the elections the current rate not only will not change, but is likely to become even tougher in relation to “the social” and economic interests of ordinary citizens.
Our authorities are working PR, not on the program itself. This does not mean that real economic plan of action for the years 2018-19 no. It is. Only this economic plan has nothing to do with what will be discussed during the election campaign. After all, if the authorities begin to articulate a real plan, it’s like a public suicide.
Hard attack on social rights and interests of ordinary citizens should be expected due to the evil will of certain officials, and due to the fact that just under their approach there is no other options. It is based on the principle of “balanced budget” in the form in which it is understood the current Ministry of Finance. This is the main dogma. In this approach, nothing but a robbery of the population remains. Notice one more thing – there will be a mass growth of various levies and taxes. What we saw in the case of “Plato” turns into widespread practice, the authorities try to take everywhere with, of course, anecdotal case – Putin proposed a tax on shoes.
So the real economic plan, I think, a long time approved, agreed to, just still unclear about the implementation details, they are discussed. First, some ideas are still quite absurd, and secondly, the question always arises, how is this actually implemented in practice.
What prompts people during the election campaign – a question to PR government. It is a completely different subject that to the real political agenda is not relevant.
Reforms that had previously rested in the protests against the monetization of benefits and therefore was “frozen”, is now likely to be completed – not for nothing did all of the reformers remained in their places. In 2005, the government realized that the continuation of liberal reforms will lead to delegitimation of the President and of the whole system. And retreated at that moment.
Here it is necessary to take into account that the oscillations of the pendulum between more and less liberal economic policies associated with such things as balancing the budget. Thinking of our officials suggests that any measures aimed at the interests of the population – a direct waste. And it is perceived only as a measure to preserve the support of the authorities. They say it’s bad, but it is a necessary evil. So when the Treasury has too much money, officials are willing to give something on some social programs. No, no, no.
Now economic power in the stalemate. On the one hand, they have available funds left, and on the other – available funds left and the population. Method of removing fat, which was planned in 2005, it becomes less effective. To withdraw is simply nothing – the population is impoverished. This creates problems that will be solved in a simple way: all popular things are possible to announce during the election campaign, and unpopular to implement after.
Putin is a very convenient figure for such a policy. And the power comes from the fact that its activities are perceived by people as unrelated to the activities of officials, Government Ministers and even to the activities of the President. Putin’s legitimacy does not suffer, even when the population is loudly outraged by the actions of those closest to him. Putin as abstract, emblem, flag, national symbol, but real Putin is not very important.
But there is a problem. It is in that political situation, which will be called hard economic policies will not be able to beat the President. On the other hand, the Kremlin has not decided yet who will go to the polls, the name of the candidate, I think we’ll find out in a month. Today does not rule out the possibility that Putin again in 4-6 years it will take, and then try to return that is theoretically possible.
After the election, I repeat, we will adopt a number of unpopular measures. One who will, then he will be drained, and in its place will be either Putin or the real heir. All the options are considered as a possible political moves.
Yes, vote in favor of the nomination of Vladimir Putin is more, but everything can change after one meeting at which its members will decide. No decision on elections 2018 will not be adopted until the last moment, up to 10-20 November 2017. Decide when it is simply impossible to pull.
Not so long ago, many said that after the election, followed by a sharp change of economic course. But now these conversations completely stopped because it is clear that no other economy except for the liberal, the liberals, occupying all the posts in the economic block, to build not can. But at the same time, it is obvious that they can not build.
Because now the government is stuck. Failure to make final decisions stems from the fact that this is not some fictional political deadlock or impasse of their consciousness. The impasse of objective. How will they get out of it? No one is unclear, even to themselves. Objectively speaking, the current economic paradigm of power output just yet.
According to the materials of Boris Kagarlitsky
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