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Who does not jump is the winner: Ukraine have nothing to blackmail Russia

Кто не скачет — побеждает: Украине больше нечем шантажировать Россию

Three years ago in Runet seething Patriotic passions on the line, to be the Kremlin against Ukraine.

Some patriots demanded the immediate and total cutting gone mad on the basis of nationalism and svidomo Nebrat from Russian benefits and preferences.+

They violently resented that the Kremlin did not do it sooner, instead, more than twenty years with his own hands fed the new Internet Any new step of Moscow, aimed at preserving the status quo, is perceived as a betrayal.+

Other patriots insisted that everything that happens in Ukraine is of short duration, and Moscow is obliged to enter the army to return to Kiev Yanukovych to keep the maximum status quo to everything eventually returned to normal and Russia with Ukraine returned to the familiar format of the “centuries-old fraternal relations.”+

 

The Russian government has disappointed those, and others. Second — because in the end, it all comes to the same total gap and the provision of Ukraine itself and its destiny, and the first one because instead of loud statements, beautiful of gestures and lightning-fast decisions were adopted to-action tactics are carefully calculated decisions, malomobiljnykh actions and small steps.+

The commissioning of the railway section zhuravka-Millerovo to bypass Ukraine became a convenient occasion to look back and draw some — still intermediate, but is completely determined by the outcome — the results.+

Patience — this is probably the most important quality, which showed Moscow in cooperation with Kiev in the last three and a half years.+

Where ordinary citizens wanted to “rant and rave”, the Russian power was limited to the invocation of reason and soft persuasion, which, of course, did not add to her points in the eyes of society.+

However, this is an interesting coincidence. Miraculously, each radical step with potentially unpleasant consequences for Russia of Kiev was doing at the time when these unpleasant consequences have had for Moscow excessively heavy character.+

For example, by some amazing coincidence that Ukraine has initiated the gaps in economic cooperation when Russia this was not anything fatal or Russian producers were ready to replace the Ukrainian subcontractors, or delay in the creation of domestic import-substituting product did not carry strategic threats.+

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Most clearly this phenomenon was manifested, perhaps, with blockade of the Crimea. Another year and a half after March of 2014 Ukraine supplied the Peninsula with electricity and the blockade was imposed, when the construction of an energy bridge from the Kuban has reached its final stage. With all the discomforts of rolling inclusions in a few months even partially put into operation the bridge did not allow the worst-case scenario for peninsulae.+

Кто не скачет — побеждает: Украине больше нечем шантажировать Россию
On the photo: power Lines in the vicinity of Sevastopol

Now we can only guess, as the methods and the efforts of Moscow for one and a half years has kept Kiev and its radicals in order not to leave the Peninsula for such a long period without normal power supply.+

There is a suspicion that there was a combination of all methods — from persuasion and bribery to pressure and threats.+

And because these topics and issues in bilateral relations were dozens from the global (like gas transit) to a relatively small but extremely sensitive. What would have happened if three years ago, Ukraine has blocked and banned Russia to use railway land for its territory? What damage would cause it to Russian business, Russian Railways and ordinary citizens?+

In this case, the crucial aspect is that these topics — were. They are in the past.+

Over the past week has changed the tone of Moscow in respect of the next voiced initiatives of Kiev to break with Russia. This is most clearly manifested in the issue of the possible introduction of a visa regime.+

Moscow for three years gently warn Kiev over and over again, patiently explaining, at the highest level that this step will be for Ukraine shooting itself in the foot, given the number of Ukrainian migrant workers in Russia.

However, suddenly the tone changed and now the Russian representatives with a shrug, saying “let them do what they want — Russia in the issue of visas will act symmetrically”.

Кто не скачет — побеждает: Украине больше нечем шантажировать Россию
In the photo: People crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border

The question is: what has changed?+

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The answer is quite simple: Russia has finally closed its greatest vulnerability, generated by the fusion of economic and infrastructure systems of the two countries.+

The railway bypass was built, a gas pipeline bypassing downloaded and build new, infrastructure independence of the Crimea secured, key partners for Russian enterprises importozameschenie. There are already little details that do not affect the situation fundamentally.+

The solution to this problem, Russia took three and a half years.+

Kiev have nothing to blackmail Moscow. Ukraine is no longer possible to cause Russia serious damage.+

The Kremlin can exhale with relief, and the Russian society and the state can congratulate each other with the task, a Grand scale of which we have yet to evaluate.+

One question remains: what is Ukraine?+

And Ukraine will have to drink your choice to the bottom. But this is not Russia’s problem.

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