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Whether threatens Russia “panfilovskaya thaw

Грозит ли России "памфиловская оттепель"

Who headed the Central election Commission, Ella Pamfilova promises the Russians a fair election. How seriously you should treat her? The opinion of Igor Eydman specifically for DW.

It would seem that there is nothing more boring elections to the Duma, has long turned into a “contract match” with a known outcome. However, the appointment of new Chairman of the Central election Commission Ella Pamfilova made in the upcoming election campaign some intrigue. Abolishing early voting in Barvikha, former Ombudsman showed that they are not going to turn a blind eye to gross violations of the electoral legislation. Immediately appeared optimistic, pending some “panfilovskoe thaw”, real competition in elections, and even, horrible to say, honest summarizing their results.

Benefit from defeat

However, it is unlikely the Russian authorities suddenly corrected himself and, after the hero of Vladimir Voinovich, “wanted to be honest.” The fact that they don’t need to falsify a convincing victory of “United Russia”. In the country after the annexation of the Crimea was formed absolutist regime, in which power of the first person is not based on the ruling party and Pro-presidential legal consensus of the main political forces.

Putin is even interested in the fact that in the future the Duma was not a one-party dominance. Then he could act as Supreme arbitrator, without whose support it is impossible to solve any important issue. In addition, the relative failure of “United Russia” will mean a personal defeat of Dmitry Medvedev. And this on the eve of new presidential elections once again confirms that Vladimir Putin is the only one in the ruling elite of serious public policy.

Go to fight some old people

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The parliamentary party is not threat to the Kremlin. His main task is to avoid politics nothing uncontrollable, unpredictable. Therefore, the election to the Duma a long time reminiscent of Groundhog Day, each time with the same long lost shape players.

At the election stage, each of them has its own role. “United Russia” works for those who are on his heart or under compulsion “is ready, his pants, running” where will tell the authorities. The rest of the party in the Russian Parliament are designed to channel the discontent of the population in the safe for the Kremlin course.

“United Russia” over the past year have lost about a tenth of its supporters. If this is not observed and significant growth of popularity of other Duma parties. The society is maturing a request for a new, real opposition.

Strangers do not go here

This time the authorities, apparently, will not steal votes for “United Russia” from other participants of the race. However, the upcoming elections, of course, will not be honest. “Panfilovskaya thaw” does not apply to real opposition. For real opposition forces “shoot” on the far outskirts of the vote. So, against a democratic coalition based on the party PARNAS was made successful information provocation in the worst kagebeshny traditions. Demonstration by gostv captured by the specifics of the film about its leader Mikhail Kasyanov led the coalition to split and disorganization.

Authorities demonstrate that they are not ready to tolerate criticism against Putin, his friends and relatives, their tax havens, corruption, and luxury. Such critics would not allow the elections. To say nothing of Bulk, even if loyal Prokhorov has suffered because of the investigations belonging to it RBC. After the raids on his companies, it became clear that the path to politics for the billionaire in the foreseeable future, closed. The fate of the “Yabloko” also depends on whether the party during the campaign to address “forbidden” topics.

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A sprout breaks through asphalt

The last research “Levada-center” about the offshore scandal show that about half of Russians with varying degrees of determination blame Putin’s abuse of power. And 14 percent believe the President is undoubtedly guilty of abuse. In reality, these people more, because a quarter of respondents admit that they just are afraid to tell pollsters the truth. They are – a potential electorate of a real opposition, which, in normal elections obviously would not be the last place in the parliamentary elections.

Power hard in recent years “asphalted” the political field, destroying everything on it is independent. But living germs penetrate even the most durable pavement. Outside the Kremlin-controlled political space created by the “Fund of struggle against corruption”, with the investigation which follows was politicized interent audience appeared such organizations as the PARNAS, the Party of Progress, “December 5 Party”, the movement “Solidarity”, “Left front”, etc.

They feel immense pressure against them taking all sorts of provocations, up to hooligan attacks and criminal cases. Not surprisingly, many of them are now experiencing, to put it mildly, not the best of times. But, despite all this, they exist and are fighting. By the Duma elections, of course, will not allow. But only for such impermissible, uncontrolled by the authorities future policy.

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