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What can happen with the economy, if sanctions will cause Iran?

New US sanctions against Iran have seriously hit the economy in the country are spontaneous riots caused by falling living standards and rising prices. President Hassan Rouhani warned the us leadership: “don’t play with lion’s tail, otherwise you will regret it.” And Donald trump responded as follows: “Never, never threaten the United States or you will suffer the consequences, which will not suffered before in history! Beware!”. If the United States really will bring down the Iranian economy, will this affect Kazakhstan? This question we asked the experts.

Anton Evstratov, an expert on the Middle East: “to replace Iran in the oil market of Kazakhstan is not able to”

The sanctions primarily target the oil and banking sectors of the Iranian economy is the objectives for which the Americans beat earlier and vulnerability which they are well known. The country already has seriously reduced the standard of living in the backdrop of the fall of the national currency and withdrawal from the market of several foreign companies. This can be observed even in free economic zones – in particular, the Araz.

However, this has not stopped the trading operations in the regional business players, especially Turkish and Azerbaijani, has remained in the Iranian market and have all chances to occupy niches. As for the protests, at the moment they are not even covered skolkonibud serious territory and does not have a mass – rather, it is about the natural and local outbreaks of popular discontent in several cities of Iran.

This is partly due to the fact that the economic situation of citizens is still not a failure, partly with the fear factor, because many people are afraid to go out. Therefore, we can say that at the moment about any revolution can not be and speeches – the power of control of the situation entirely.

Why failed to organize a United front against Iran? Because it’s simply uneconomical for many countries. Profitable even European companies associated with the Iranian partners after signing the AGREEMENT. Unprofitable even some American companies working with Iran, but Washington is a matter of principle. As for China, he was one of the initiators of the AGREEMENT, have been working with

Iran sees no reason for divorce – the Iranian side is still regularly performed all of its obligations.

Turkey – a regional economic partner of Iran, it simply can not do without Iranian energy resources and other goods and, of course, the Iranian market. In addition, let’s not forget that relations between Ankara and Washington is also experiencing not the best times, and Turkey in these terms will not operate to the detriment of its economic interests in favor of the transatlantic partner.

Moreover, Turkey is difficult, thorny, but cooperates with Iran in the framework of the Astana agreements on Syria and is hardly ready to provoke your partner. Washington will certainly try to influence the “opportunists”, but the Chinese and American economies are too interdependent, and Turkey albeit problematic, but still an ally of Washington. All that can be done bad, the West the Turks have done and hardly capable of any fundamental decisions in this matter.

It may be the opinion of the next batch of weapons or something like that, but these issues Ankara, as recent practice shows, it is successfully solved. For example, at the expense of Russia.

Can sanctions against Iran be beneficial to Kazakhstan, because their background is expected to rise in oil prices? It is also known that Iran is interested in economic relations with Kazakhstan, particularly in the procurement of grain in the implementation of logistics projects. Could all this curl now?

In particular, could fall the profitability of the railway from Kazakhstan through Turkmenistan to Iran?

No doubt, the economic opportunities of Iran sanctions after such a hard impact will decrease – at least at first. This will have an impact on the profitability of the Railways, and commercial transactions with Iran. On the other hand, Kazakhstan is unlikely to lose anything in the export of grain – a commodity of first necessity, and perhaps it will cease to buy. More dangerous is the loss of access to the port of Bandar Abbas, through which is sold and oil from Kazakhstan, but Kazakhstan will be able to fill this gap through the replacement of Iranian oil to your.

Of course, to fully replace Iran’s oil market Astana is not able, but it product will definitely become more popular in Europe (though there will be problems with delivery) and in the far East. However, as I mentioned above, with the Iranian market goes European company, and the chance to replace them have Turkish firms. Kazakhstan, too, could act in this role and to expand its presence in the Iranian market in almost every aspect.

This is an important perspective for Kazakhstan and other States of the EEU have some technological base and are ready to continue trading with Tehran. The need for Iran to export goods can make possible new areas of trade between him and Kazakhstan, as well as other States.

Moreover, Kazakhstan can become a bridge for Iran under the new return to the global economy, as he did earlier in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. Astana has equally good relations of isiri,Issa,the IP of China and Europe and Russia, it’s appropriate geography and, very importantly, a positive precedent. However, this must want Iran itself, which has repeatedly stated on the possible resumption of its nuclear program. Faced with the confusion and sabotage the AGREEMENT by the US, Iran, it seems, will resume work in this direction is good, a lot of the time it is not necessary for this.

Grigory Trofimchuk, an expert in the field of foreign policy, defence and security: “the Negative geopolitical tendencies around Tehran sooner or later will force Astana to minimize connection with him”

Iran is no stranger to the pressure on him from the West is constantly increasing for more than a decade, although the Islamic Republic was not easy from the very beginning of its existence. Today, the main problem for Iran is not in a negative attitude from the United States, and that countries that are to some extent against the United States, such as Russia or China, are not willing to organize anti-American front, even if only in the economic sphere.

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Why Washington would seek finally to “curb” Iran with the aim of the political reformatting of the country. This task runs the strengthening of internal socio-economic tensions in Iran, which can now only be removed at the expense of quality, visible, emphasize this especially to strengthen ties with its trading partners, including with Russia at the interregional level.

Iran should immediately withdraw the standard of living of the population at a stable and acceptable – a more important political goal for the country’s leadership does not exist today. Iran is interested in the US for the simple and clear reason: direct access to the Caspian sea and further expansion of the possibilities of the West in the key adjacent regions.

Tehran understands that no formal agreement on division of Caspian sea the situation did not save, so the leadership of the country, apparently, there were natural questions during the signing of the latter. Sanctions against the two countries of the Caspian “five”, Iran and Russia, would inevitably influence all relations between regional partners, and more and more.

This pressure could go away or slightly off, but I do not see the sharp relief of the rates or prices for citizens of countries from the region, including tourists, to increase economic and trade activity can talk seriously and not in discussion, formal documents and numbers. Need a real breakthrough, which will cover and insure the situation.

Regarding cooperation between Iran and Kazakhstan, the negative geopolitical tendencies around Tehran sooner or later will force Astana to minimize contact with him. This is the reality from which it is difficult to leave. Besides Astana’s always very attentive to the growing problems in the relationship with their closest partners with the United States, assessing how it will affect her, even yet in theory.

Nevertheless, Astana is always ready to offer their intermediary services based on extensive experience in the negotiation of the international sphere. While the Caspian countries need to understand that Washington will not leave Iran alone.

From this fact and must build all the next steps of Moscow, Astana, Baku, Ashgabat. And responses to current events in the four capitals are only two: either to distance itself from Iran, or specifically to defend the common interests of the “Caspian fortress”, supporting him in everything. But away from politics, focusing exclusively on economic issues, they will not succeed.

Especially as, in the opinion of the US, it will look like blatant weakness, inability to meet current challenges that will provoke the White house to further activity. Iran’s nuclear program will not be curtailed, as it is clear that now only this one causes US to fear a direct and rapid impact on this country.

Anna Gusarova, Director of the Central Institute for strategic studies: “the Next stage of the sanctions slightly, will affect bilateral relations”

It is obvious that China, Turkey and Russia will not support the toughening of the US position against Iran. Also, do not forget that trump in some way begins to project the “Iranian sanctions” on Turkey and Russia. And the consequences of these decisions will be much worse than for Iran.

A unified front while it is impossible to form, and will not work. The administration trump is actively using its diplomatic channels in the UK to form a unified Anglo-American tough stance on Iran. I wonder how serious trump in his next Twitter message: “Those who are trading with Iran, will not engage in trade with the United States.”

It is expected that in addition to an embargo on imports of Iranian oil, the sanctions affect the Iranian banking sector and the automotive industry already to the 4th November 2018. In addition, it is logical sanctions will affect the transaction of the Central Bank to “U.S. dollars”, gold, precious metals, aluminum, steel, coal, and commercial passenger planes, prohibited the import of Iranian carpets and food products in the United States.

The question is: how will affect the signing of the Convention of Aktau on the Caspian sea with production and delivery of Iranian oil, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will negotiate the parties and that will become a bargaining chip in addressing these issues, as with these countries, and with Russia and Europe.

It is unclear what role Kazakhstan could take in negotiations on Iran, as announced by the us administration demands for a new deal will not be soon realized: they met with hostility and extremely exasperated, not only from Tehran.

The position of the trump leads to a revision of the negotiating model on the Iranian program because of contradictions with European partners intensified, and it is unclear who and when patience will run out first from the United States, British or European business, or from other players.

With regard to the trade of Kazakhstan with Iran, the nomenclature remains the same.

If sanctions will really affect the market of aluminium and flights, you can raise questions by “air Astana”, the currency and the banking sector, however, this is still not a fact. However, the level of turnover in recent years has declined somewhat, so it is logical to expect that the next stage of sanctions will only slightly affect bilateral relations.

Dmitry Mikhailichenko, coordinator of the analytical center “Samrau”: “the escalation of the conflict bears no Kazakhstan no strategic advantage”

The protests in Iran really indicate a high level of social discontent, but to talk about the pre-revolutionary situation, I would not. In Iranian society is still strong anti-American sentiment, and the power knows how to use it.

In a global sense anti-Iranian front is not formed, because the world can see that is directed tranism. Neither Beijing nor even Ankara is not ready to contribute to the strengthening of US influence in greater Eurasia.

Unfortunately, return US to a policy of pressure on Tehran nullifies emerging progress in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue.

It is obvious that the escalation of the conflict bears no Kazakhstan no strategic advantages. Moreover, Astana is actively developing cooperation with Iran. The tightening of sanctions against the Islamic Republic poses a threat to the profitability of major transport and logistics of the project “North-South”, in which Kazakhstan is actively involved. The effect of sanctions on the global oil prices will be short-lived and can’t offset the damage that will be incurred by the economy of Kazakhstan.

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Igor Pankratenko, Deputy Director of the Russian Center for strategic estimates and projections: “the Loss of Iran as a trading partner is Kazakhstan a serious problem”

Like any major political event that new sanctions against Iran, this time from Donald trump, are quite multi-layered phenomenon. And the first of these layers – the impact of sanctions on the internal situation in Iran. In fact, in Washington do not hide that the ultimate goal of us policy against Iran (including through sanctions and pressure) is to change the existing system.

Outwardly, it looks like this taken on by the trump mission quite possible: since the beginning of this year in Iran do not stop social protests, which to date has covered almost all segments of the population of the Islamic Republic.

And if earlier to President Rouhani, claims have been made mostly about socio-economic policies of his administration, but today he was totally bankrupt and in foreign policy. However, at the political bankruptcy of Rouhani and his “team of pragmatists and reformers,” all good news for those waiting for the revolution and the fall of the regime of the ayatollahs, over.

With all the social tensions in Iran, with all the problems that have intensified in the country, while the heat, which after the imposition of sanctions – because that’s “unexpected” coincidence – becomes the ongoing separatist and terrorist underground undeclared war, the slogans of the protests as a whole has not acquired a political character. Against corrupt officials – Yes. Against incompetence and abuse of government at all levels as they want. But anti-government slogans, about which so like to inform foreign mass-media, are rare. And more than enough cases where those who proclaimed them, and stopped, and then handed over the police the protesters themselves.

The radical opposition did not manage to “ride” social protest in Iran, which indicates two, at least, the realities of the political situation in the country. First, opponents of the regime are not a serious political force and not popular among the masses. Secondly, the margin of safety in Islamic Republic were much higher than expected anti-Iranian forces abroad, from politicians, the USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia to quite militant organization of Iranian immigrants, the same “Mujahideen of the Iranian people” and similar radicals, operating under the auspices of special services.

And Iranian authorities, according to the latest personnel decisions, arrests of officials and other actions finally begin to seriously work on resolving accumulated in the country over the decades, social and economic contradictions.

So, to paraphrase a classic, we can say: “rumors of the demise of the Islamic Republic are greatly exaggerated”. Including because there is a second layer taking place – quite a successful emerging international opposition to anti-Iranian politics trump and his allies.

Yes, the big European business, whatever they say in Paris, Berlin or Brussels, do leave Iran. Yes, Japan, South Korea and, to a large extent, India will refuse from Iranian oil. Yes, the news that Moscow concludes with Tehran some multibillion-dollar deals are frankly fake. But the globe in these countries does not end.

First of all, there is a fundamental position of Beijing “has worked with Tehran and will continue to work”. Moreover, it will work and those projects, of which takes Western business. With some nuances, but similar to the position of Ankara. And it’s safe to say that its current policy towards Turkey, such as “a NATO ally”, Washington makes for Erdogan to discuss the development of Iranian-Turkish cooperation without regard to us sanctions absolutely fundamental.

And this is not a complete list of those serious players that somehow are going to help Iran to bypass us sanctions – albeit for different reasons, even if only to create problems for the individual activists of the anti-Iranian coalition and to Donald Trump.

There is Qatar, and certain circles in Europe, and influential financiers and businessmen in the middle East – in short, the “black knights”, the businessmen of different countries working with Iran to bypass the sanctions, this time is no less ambitious than in the days of “crippling sanctions against Tehran,” the name is Obama-Clinton. Which in turn, if not solve all the problems of the Iranian economy, to some extent will reduce their severity.

A long, almost forty-year history of total sanctions against Iran presents a rather paradoxical in the conclusions of the lesson: in the end, they benefit US. And not those who, for various reasons, the regime of these sanctions carefully observes. The winners are those who are in a similar situation “acts on the verge of a foul” by not political sympathies, and carefully calculated on pragmatic considerations.

A feature of the current actions trump against Tehran is that the Americans with the participation of the Saudis and a number of players managed to ensure the stability of oil prices. Reduction of deliveries from Iran will be offset by other, and price hikes should be expected. Of course that “gives way” and trade relations, and logistics projects.

But is this a serious problem for Kazakhstan? Despite the fact that the trade turnover between the countries last year amounted to 552,6 million dollars – the worst performance since 2012. Which in recent times more and steadily declining. Let me remind you that in 2014, when fully acted “crippling sanctions”, he was, according to the state revenue Committee of MF RK and the Committee on statistics of MNE of RK, 986,3 million dollars, in 2015 – 635,6, and in 2016-m – 596,4 million

Moreover, a similar rate has decreased imports from Iran – 93.8 million, 69.8 million and 45.6 million, respectively. I mean, let’s really frankly, the loss of Iran as a trading partner is Kazakhstan a serious problem. Not very nice, but not too critical. Especially if you have the desire and political will it is possible, for example, China and Turkey, and the shortfall in incomes in various ways, partly to compensate.

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