Tax and pension reforms, starting in 2019, will hit the pockets of Russian consumers for a total amount of 800 billion rubles.
According to analysts of the Center for macroeconomic analysis of Alfa-Bank, it is so much reduced purchasing power of the population due to the inevitable increase in prices and reduction in the number receiving pension payments, according to Finanz.
As a result of growth rate of value added tax (VAT) from 18% to 20% — additional tax burden on consumers will be approximately 500 billion; in addition, 2 million people will not receive their pensions, equivalent to the shortfall in income by 300 billion rubles.
“Together, these two factors account for approximately 2% of the annual consumption of households”, — said the chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. According to her, the purchase of goods and services will have to be reduced, which will hit domestic demand and companies oriented to the domestic market.
They “may be less incentive for expansion,” including the hiring of new employees and for existing employees — a “restricted plans on indexation of salaries,” the expert predicts.
With the end of the election period will end with a generosity towards the public sector. On average, growth of real wages 6% this year will slow to 4% next.
In terms of citizens over the age of 18 (120 million people), the wallets of the Russians “lose weight” on the average on 6,6 thousand roubles — such sum will be given in the budget for the implementation plan accelerating economy, which, according to the head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin will allow you to catch up with Germany by the end of the 6-year term of President Vladimir Putin.
But “the government’s attempts to accelerate investment growth through investments in government infrastructure projects is unlikely to be sufficient to compensate for all the factors of slowing consumption,” skeptical Orlov.
“The economic slowdown will become apparent this year,” she said. So, if in the first half of the year GDP added 1.7%, in August — only 1%. At the end of the year growth will amount to 1.3%, and next year they will be reduced to 0.8%.
Meanwhile, the main beneficiaries of higher taxes and saving for retirement will remain a force structure and defense, follows from the draft budget for the 2019-21 years, which approved and submitted to the state Duma the government.
For three years the expenditures classified as “secret” will increase by 36% from 3.04 to 4.17 trillion rubles a year, and the total funding of the articles “national defense” and “national security” will increase by 29%, from 5.14 to 6.64 trillion rubles.
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