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The rejection of the dollar in payments for oil will not help

Possible new us sanctions against Russia are not only able to derail the national currency, but also lead to inflation. It is recognized by the first Vice Prime Minister — Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. Now the dollar, like in 2016, have gone beyond 68 rubles, whereas at the beginning of this year he was in the area of 55 rubles. According siluanova, Russia could abandon the dollar in payment for oil exports, going to settlements in similar trading operations in the ruble equivalent.

Over the past few days, the ruble fell against the dollar by 4% — said Siluanov. The cost of “green” was high for 68 rubles. So already in 2016. However, if oil fell to $40 per barrel, and now the cost of a barrel at $73.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance shows peace of mind: real effective exchange rate “relatively stable”, says the head of the Ministry. Externally, a significant increase in the nominal dollar exchange rate is explained by the “inflation differential” — the difference in the rate of growth of prices in Russia and the United States.

There are questions to the Ministry of Finance — national currency, has fallen since the beginning of August from 62 to 68 rubles is stability? It’s almost 10%! To rely on the “inflation differential” is also not entirely correct. According to the Ministry of labor of the United States, consumer prices in the United States in July increased by 2.9% in annual terms.

In Russia, predicts the Bank of Russia in August, annual inflation will be 2.8-3%. The concept of “differential” in that case, of course, appropriate is an infinitesimal function as it is treated in the mathematical Sciences, always tends to zero. However, because there is an infinitely large function, which, as the name implies, always tends to infinity. Based on this concept, we can assume that the exchange rate of the Russian currency, regardless of oil prices, might fall back for 70 rubles per dollar, and perhaps even lower.

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There are questions and to the Ministry of economic development. In its forecast made in early July, the Ministry of Maxim Oreshkin suggested that in 2018 the exchange rate of the “wood” will remain close to current levels: that is, on average, by December the dollar had to be at the level in 61 rubles per dollar.

The prediction was a failure — rate of the Russian currency slipped sharply. The Central Bank tried to stabilize the situation on the currency market by reducing and eventually refraining from purchasing currency for the Ministry of Finance in the budgetary rules. The maneuver did not bring results — 13 August the official dollar rate exceeded 68,2 rubles.

Meanwhile, Anton Siluanov continued hopes for the best. “If you take the annual inflation rate, the dynamics is 2.5%. Our target of 4%” — the report of the first Vice-Premier.

However, according to analysts of “Alpari” in the current environment, real inflation already exceeds 10%. Moreover, such rate until the end of the year not only that they might continue, but may accelerate.

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However, according to Siluanov, the dollar is still considered a solid world currency, it becomes a risky tool for calculations. “We have significantly reduced the investment of reserves in us assets (YTD external savings of Russian sovereign bonds in the US fell from about $100 billion to $15 billion — “MK”)”. Moreover: according to Siluanova, there are options in which the calculations in the oil trade (the export of “black gold” provides up to 30% of the revenues of the Russian budget) will be made in the national currency and not in dollars, as is happening at present.

However, says doctor of Economics Igor Nikolaev, the transition to payment for Russian hydrocarbons in rubles, first requires agreement between the countries exporters importers on payment of the delivered resource in the national currency. This is unlikely to be beneficial to Russia. “For example, the payment for Russian oil, China will have to partially move on the yuan. However, the Chinese national currency in the foreign exchange markets is now under pressure due to trade wars between Washington and Beijing, is not a reliable tool for shifting funds from dollars. The Turkish Lira also can not be an alternative. Ankara again came across the threat of another political and economic claims on the part of Washington. The Turkish Lira ended up falling 40%. Abandoning the dollar, Russia risks to lose economically, not feeling any political effect. And oil for rubles will not save the national economy”, — said the expert.

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