Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has signed an order on introducing to the state Duma draft laws on the completion of the tax maneuver in the oil industry. They offer starting from 2019, gradually reduce export duties on oil from 30% to zero by 2024. Experts say that this could trigger further price increases.
To oil refining became unprofitable entered deductions on excise tax for oil refiners (easier – subsidies) and they will also grow annually. In addition, it will be even a negative excise duty to retrofit refineries companies under sanctions.
“In the case of the jump in oil prices (anything can happen) the government reserves the right to temporarily impose the export duties on crude oil and petroleum products to make them unprofitable excessive exports and the deficit on the domestic market (which leads to higher prices at gas stations), – says the telegram-channel Sickle.
In the case of the decline in world oil prices, the reduction of oil revenues is damped by the decrease in met (directly dependent on world prices), and possible devaluation of the ruble. So the profitability of exports will be maintained and excess fuel on the domestic market (which could lead to a fall in petrol prices) will not.
This tax maneuver – a key reason for the jump in gasoline prices in may this year. But to restrain prices by abandoning its own income (lowering the excise tax) the government is obviously no longer going.
The system is inflexible, requiring manual control with a large movement of oil prices and negotiations with oil companies, in each case as to reduce the excise tax refining to the domestic market there was no shortage of fuel. But even containing the growth of oil exports, the government loses the leverage to restrain the export of petroleum products… Well, unless a club to give up, if the oil will be thwarted – the temporary return of export duties.
In this system there are no built-in mechanisms to curb the growth of fuel prices. Moreover, it specifically gives that rising prices freedom. But only smoothly and unobtrusively, and not as in may and 5% for the month. That was not such jumps have to watch oil companies, which the government is directly and unambiguously pushing for monopolistic collusion. And not follow – we (the government), their export duty will make, will not find it…
It’s a clumsy system, should according to the authors, to substitute the action of market mechanisms manual control. Most importantly, the oil always cap in hand to the government, always have and always threatened…
Well, the icing on the cake – 1,3-1,6 trillion rubles to the budget in 6 years with oilers. Which, of course, will shift these expenses on consumers.
The tax maneuver is a transition from a simple system of withdrawal of incomes of oil producers when exporting (i.e., aliens) to the system of removing them (including their citizens). In the first case the population would remain relatively low fuel prices (as in many oil-producing countries), the second is not.
The government’s goal is to pull up fuel prices in the country to the world, and better than European prices (which is 2 times higher, for example, the us), but now the prices approximately at the level of United States prices).
This means outpacing inflation rising gasoline prices. That earlier in the Russian history was observed. But now will. This is the meaning of the oil tax maneuver”.
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