Syria is still a lot of problems. When we solve one, generated a new one and this process seems to have no end. Each one of them, one way or another, linked to another. To Take Idlib. The situation here perfectly describes the overall situation. Immediately it becomes clear that claims each of the parties to the conflict.
The United States gave to understand that in Syria they will remain, despite much talk about the imminent withdrawal of U.S. troops. Care they chose to restart the operation, and now in Idlib, their presence is growing every day. While his people uncle Sam is not going to send for slaughter. For this he has a lot of “allies”. The first candidates were Turks, and as long as they meet the expectations of Washington.
For the last week in the opposition-controlled part of the North-West of Syria, Turkey has sent dozens of convoys. It’s not just any trucks, and SUVs — there are tanks. It threatens to increase tension, given that, more recently, Damascus in fact has already announced the launch of the operation against the opposition and terrorists. But this had to wait, apparently under pressure from Moscow, which was waiting for talks in Iran.
The negotiations were held and, apparently, Erdogan proved to be the best diplomat, since neither Iran nor Moscow has not objected to the temporary cancellation of the operation of the Syrian government forces. It seemed that this approach, albeit it for Russia and not the winning, although a little slow down the degree of tension, despite the military activity of Ankara, but again intervened States. Their provocation with the use of chemical weapons seems to be failed, although who knows, maybe this case is simply postponed for later. But there was a prompt replacement. In any case, the Turks believe so.
Popular Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak published an article which stated that the United States of America intend to send in Idlib fighters of the Kurdistan workers party. Then you need to give a little comment in the Turkish media (especially the Pro-government — ed.)YPG (people’s protection Units) and PKK (Kurdistan workers ‘ party — ed.) usually written with a slash or even use these phrases interchangeably. In this case we are talking about the Syrian people’s protection Units, but the authors write only about the Kurdistan workers ‘ party. In General, the journalists of the above media have information that a special squad of 250 Kurdish militants under the control of the Americans airlifted from Hasaka in North-East Aleppo. Before them the goal to fight with the opposition, which controls certain areas of Idlib. Even called specific names. So, according to the newspaper, in charge of this operation personally, the special representative of Donald trump in the coalition fight against ISIS Brett Mcguirk. A lead referred to the Kurdish team will be a member of the military Council Manuja (city in northeast Aleppo province — ed.) Server Darvish.
If this is true, we can say that the US found almost the perfect way to ignite another feud between Russia and Turkey, and if you land the jackpot, then the war will be able to arrange. The fact that Server Darvish informed actively in contact with people from the inner circle of Bashar al-Assad. He established contacts, demonstrated their loyalty and even, speaking of the military Council Manuja, offered Damascus to send its officials to the city. And when the Syrian Arab army began to pull forces to Idlib, the Kurds put out the word that they seem to be ready to help Assad to “fighting terrorism”. That is the impression that if the people’s protection Units and will move in the troubled province, it is only in support of Syrian Arab army.
Of course, such conduct may not please Turkey. It will pohlesche Israeli panic in connection with the approach of Iranian and Pro-Iranian forces to the Golan heights. Ankara people’s protection Units and Kurdistan workers ‘ party — a threat to national security. Liquidate it the Turks are as tough and, admittedly, very successfully. And suddenly the Kurds promptly sang with Assad and going as a United front to go to Idlib, which Ankara has invested a lot of money and many other resources. It is not surprising that the last two-three weeks in Turkey are seriously considering the possibility of a full-fledged war with the Syrian Arab army and other prosalovskaya forces. About our military this is not: this idea is unpopular. However, it is hard to imagine how the Turks will fight with Assad, while not confronted with the Russians. In General, if the US is doing as it is described by the journalists of Yeni Şafak, then we should expect big problems.
Russian political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorgyan drew attention to the fact that the Kurds in Syria now in crisis. They split in connection with the actions of those same States who have shown complete indifference to the fate of their allies, when they destroyed the Turks stormed Afrin.
— The internal problems of the Kurds are also exacerbated by heavy losses. They had been badly mauled, and now they are weakened. For some of the big battles now are not ready. Regarding whether some interaction with the Kurds, the Syrian government forces and, consequently, with our military, to say nothing really is impossible. I’m sure that if such an operation is planned, we should expect some announcements from the staff. If it really is some kind of provocation, and this is the staff for sure. Personally, I highly doubt it, but, of course, admit that, in Syrian conditions, any possible provocation.
“SP”: — If we assume that this is possible, why it may be necessary for the Kurds? What benefit can they extract?
— I think no.
“SP”: — And how about the fact that they their actions will provoke Iglinskiy conflict, in which Turkey guaranteed bogged down for a long time? Under these conditions, Ankara will not be up to Manija and, especially, not to Hasaka.
Maybe. This issue requires further consideration. For the USA the benefit, of course, is obvious. They can seriously complicate the life of Russia. After that, future success of Assad will be called into question. But with the Kurds is much more complicated. A considerable part of them after the betrayal of Americans really committed to the Union with Damascus, others continue to rely on the States. Such a provocation could further aggravate their split. And it is very dangerous in their situation.
In turn, the Turkish expert Ender Imrek believes that Americans often choose fighters from the members of the people’s protection Units to create special groups. It is normal practice, when we are talking about a poorly organized army, for example, which has a Democratic Union (Kurdish party, in fact the ruling in the North SAR and controlling the people’s protection Units — ed.). Even during the assault on Raqqa has been used by many of such groups, trained and armed. To manage them much easier, and in General this is the standard U.S. approach to such groups.
The participation of Kurds in the war in Idlib — this is almost impossible to avoid. Kurdish troops are not only in the North-East of the province of Aleppo or near the same city. Some of them cooperated with Iranian forces, others directly from prosalovskaya Sunni groups. You have to understand that the people’s protection Units is not an army, it’s kind of an umbrella structure with warlords, often warring. In Idlib, these groups can act separately, without any coordination. Therefore, the provocation is possible. But this does not negate the possibility that on the side of Assad can actually fight allied Kurds. Both will likely result in big problems for all except the United States. Last ways to prolong and justify its presence in the SAR.
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