Stepan Demura said that in Russia, soon will be worse than in the 90s. the Main reason is the serious structural problems in the economy and its management. In addition, the Kremlin is two costly wars in Syria and Ukraine. Also the content of the Crimea, plus penalties cost is not cheap.
Evaluation of the fall of the ruble and the growth of the dollar from Demur the same as before — to the end of the year, about 200 rubles per U.S. dollar, and then be devalued.
The well-known trader Stepan Demura during his seminar, called “the people’s Commissariats in the ring”,March 15, expressed the opinion about what awaits Russia after “the election of Putin” – the event, to be held in the nearest Sunday.
Speaking about what is happening with the Russian economy, demur said, the jubilation of the authorities about GDP growth, he did not share, and here’s why. Indeed, today is the place to be a slight increase in GDP, however, due to he fact that the prices for oil have grown and are kept at the same level. However, the problem, according to the economist, is that GDP growth is generated exclusively from the oil and gas industry – as evidenced by even “Rosstat”.
Industry and business in the tax trap
The whole Russian industry and the retail sector are stagnating in the double digits. The only source of income in the budget now, according to the analyst, is the oil and gas industry, all other companies (construction, manufacturing industries, retailers) is caught in a tax trap, the rate of payment of taxes on the profit drops dramatically. As soon as the fall in the price of oil will fall, the tax base. If you add a sharp but steady decline in consumer demand and purchasing power of the population, and began the fall of the ruble, said the economist, a very sad picture for the next year and a half. Russia will face massive bankruptcies in all sectors, because the country, says the analyst, produces nothing. Where, in this case, to take profits?
Depleted basic assets
Alarming Stepan G. and the fact that investment in fixed assets in the country account for only 10 percent, whereas in developed countries this figure is fixed at the level of 40-45 percent. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union we were left with no industry (all the factories converted into boutiques and shopping centers) or staff, who would be able to service the units in production. In the 90s, according to Demur all it was, was the means through which the country managed to survive the crisis. Now no Foundation base that could keep afloat the “dying” economy is not, and therefore, the prospect that awaits Russia, is much worse than in the 90s.
High risk of a mass sell-off by investors Russian OFZs
The expert also noted the fact that the share of non-residents among holders of Russian Federal loan bonds has now reached 37 percent, and in some OFZ issues, their share reaches 75 percent. As soon as the mass sale by foreign investors of Russian bonds, ruble will immediately fly down and the collapse of the economy, according to analysts, is inevitable.
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