On the news about the introduction of the United States unprecedented sanctions against the Russian Federation, which among other things also apply to the largest state-owned banks, we observe a rapid fall of the ruble. Your opinion of what are the consequences for the Russian economy, the Putin government and for ordinary Russians will entail announced last week, sanctions and what is their purpose, was expressed by the famous economist, financial and stock analyst Stepan Demura.
– On the news about the toughening of sanctions is rapidly falling ruble. This morning the dollar was worth 69 30 COP. As You consider whether to continue the drop?
– Will continue. There first goal is 75, and then we’ll see.
– You say “we’ll see”. What does it mean? What, in Your opinion, depends on the exchange rate?
– It has nothing to do with the sanctions. You look at what is happening in emerging markets, with currencies in emerging markets, with the debt of developing countries. Sanctions have a very indirect relationship.
– So You think that the reason for this decline is not sanctions, which were announced by the States last week?
Is not, I believe, is charts showing. This market shows. Sanctions – so, you know, “the icing on the cake”, “the last hundreds in the coffin of Putinism”.
– How You think, how far are ready to go the States?
– Here is another question: how long. Rather, it all depends on how soon our wonderful leaders will come back to reality from his some obscure world of cartoons. It all depends on them, not from the States. States have everything ready in order to just erase the economic, financial system of Russia from the face of the earth. It all depends on the Kremlin, not the United States. They had long prepared, all laws are adopted, all legally formalized, so now everything depends on the adequacy of the Kremlin, on how it is adequate.
– Do you think that if the Kremlin does not change its policy, sanctions are still to be introduced?
– To the full! And something else on top “thrown” for sure.
– Yes, there is no “above” such a good little list turns out…
– No, it is still possible. In my opinion, what has been taken and what is currently in development is somewhere from 20-30 percent are possible.
– What do You mean, “thrown on top”? That “thrown”?
– Direct sanctions on the supply of all that is imported. No food safety or drug safety. Moreover, our government has already shown that it is willing to push the food imported tractors and bulldozers, so in principle no moral restrictions in the West does not lie. Even, for example, in the case of Iran and with North Korea they never impose sanctions on medicine and food. And then the government of Russia has imposed sanctions against themselves, or rather against its own people, for food. Therefore, no moral restrictions from the point of view of the US and the West do not. Themselves, so to say, ran. They may be elementary to leave the country without diesel, without petrol, because the catalysts and all equipment is mainly Western (I mean equipment that produces a more or less normal petrol and diesel). The Chinese put nothing will, because they don’t want to run into even bigger penalties. Perhaps for medicinal embargo they will not go, after all they are civilized people, unlike us. You can do a lot: just ban all banks and foundations to work with any assets in Russia, again walk the “steamroller” of the oligarchs, so there’s a lot you can do.
And if all this is done, then what will happen to Russia?
– What do You think? Stone age. And bomb nothing.
– Some experts believe that the new sanctions are intended to coerce the so-called “Putin majority” in anti-government protests. What is Your opinion on this?
– If before the sanctions were mostly against our “dear” oligarchy, perhaps they (the States – ed.) was hoping one of them will make the right decision, but these people are capable of nothing but “cut” the budget and state property, so now a new wave of sanctions reminiscent of the “carpet” bombing on “terpenoid”. Because Putin, the “king-priest” of our own, do have support among the population, therefore, will be on the population. This they are now beginning to engage.
The population will remain as already announced comrade Volodin, no pensions, no money to survive, without food, without medicines. Wonderful!
– About the performance Volodin: do You think that pensions will be canceled after all?
From our government we can expect anything, so these hints in plain text and almost… “Terpenoids” it was said: “Guys, you do not have enough money, by a little. Live as you want”. That’s all.
– And when you cancel pensions, do You think?
I don’t know. Here the question is not “When?” “What?”. Plus or minus a year or two, here, in this situation, it does not play a role.
Yesterday Siluanov said that because of “inconsistent US policy,” the Russian Finance Ministry does not exclude the rejection of the dollar in payments for oil deliveries. How realistic is the embodiment of such threats?
– Please give up. But you see, now you get oil currency, and then you will get a tug, which no one except a couple of countries does not accept. Oil (deliverable contracts) from 2006 year traded in euros. You can say anything, but this is a series of “Frightened hedgehog naked f@pkoi”.
– In General, what do You think: what States want to achieve their sanctions? What is their purpose?
– They want to enforce international law, as in the Crimea and the Donbass Russia has violated all norms of international law and the Budapest Memorandum, has exposed the States idiots, that they cannot perform the guarantees that they give. And generally it turns out that the possible annexation of territories and redrawing of borders. That is a fundamental challenge to the existing world order, international law. The main goal of States is to restore the status quo. And second, to trump the same at a press conference with Putin, said that the most important thing in life for him is non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. And apparently, Kim Jong UN, trump had a long talk and I told him where they got missiles and nuclear weapons. Same with Iran – where they have rocket and missile technology for nuclear weapons. In General, we feel very sad folds for Putin’s Russia. Somehow they messed with the wrong guy, this is a very strong contender, as experience shows.
– What do You think: against the background of what is happening is it possible hyperinflation in Russia?
Possible, of course. We are on the Venezuelan scenario, the scenario of Venezuela, one to one.
– And last question: How far will the ruble slide. What is Your prediction?
– My prediction is old, he has not changed: at the bottom of the ruble no. Name any figure – we can do it for one and a half to two years. Old predictions remain valid. It sounded figures 97-125, so for a year and a half will see, maybe even higher. Once again I say: the ruble has no bottom. For some reason all forget that now the ruble should be three zero. The same people who were in power, they now in power, they do everything the same, so the only thing that slightly delayed its final “death” of the ruble is high oil prices, which have been since the mid 2000-ies. Now the tale is finished, everything returns to normal. Nothing good should not wait. All lost: lost technology, engineering and technical personnel are lost, production lost, all. We have nothing but oil, no. Well, gas and all minerals…
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