So it was decided: to raise the retirement age. And in the hard version of all: no compromise, raising the retirement age for men and 5 years to 65 years, and women for 8 years to 63 years. This scheme, proposed by the Ministry of Finance, approved by the government. However, on Saturday, the media leaked information that in the Kremlin for fear of a social explosion can slightly soften the parameters of reform, but fundamentally it changes nothing.
June 16, Russia began to protest, unhappy with the new initiatives of the government of Medvedev’s people came, in particular, on the streets of Novosibirsk. Rallies against pension reform prepared and in other cities — Omsk, Syktyvkar, Saratov.
However, the government persistently bends the line, explaining what the pros are borne by the reform. There was only one question: when? The Cabinet decided that now is the time for state Duma, which must consider the bill. Apparently, to pull it our lawmakers are not going to. According to the speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, a bill to raise the retirement age may be considered in first reading in early July. But what’s the hurry? And what the consequences might be premature decision to raise the retirement age?
Maybe the officials in no hurry to push this bill for the sake of conformity European fashion to raise the retirement age (in the Netherlands retire all out in 68 years, and in Germany now there is a transition from 65 to 67 years)? Yes, if you follow the global trends, our retirement age is clearly behind the world: in Russia remained established in 1932, the retirement age at 60 for men and 55 years for women. But officials constantly nodding in the direction of a progressive Europe, saying that life expectancy is increasing and they have, and we have, there raise the retirement age, and we are worse?
But the desire to imitate Western neighbors as the argument does not hold water. If we are to emulate, to imitate in everything. A problem with that. In Russia, the average age of survival (the number of years during which the person receives a pension, not to be confused with life expectancy, this indicator is calculated differently) finally rose to 20. This is a very good world level. However, we have a very large age difference between men and women. In men, the age of survival is barely more than 16 years, and for women approaching the age of 26.
After raising the retirement age (and with the current medicine and the environment objectively, there is little hope that people will live much longer), the age of survival for men will be reduced to 11 years with a penny, and in women under 18 years of age.
Look at Europe. In Germany, men receive a pension of 19.4 years, and women of 22.8 years, in Belgium for 21.1 and 25.8, respectively, in France 23 and 27.2 years, respectively. Somehow Russia on this background will look very pale. Welfare state, you say?
There are also objective economic indicators. At the last Cabinet meeting it was announced that without raising the retirement age, the state cannot fulfill its social obligations in full: pensioners are increasing, and people of working age who are able to pay the entitlement of the insurance contributions — less.
According to Rosstat, in 2011 per 1,000 of the population accounted for an average 292,7 pensioner, and in 2018 already 313,7 pensioner. Every year more and more money transferred from the Federal budget to the Pension Fund. Only desire to permanently increase spending on pensions of the officials there: still need to find money for the implementation of the may decrees. Here and collect wherever they can: raise taxes, and deny the oil industry subsidies (and those in response to the increase of gasoline prices), raise the retirement age. That is, the officials adhere to the simple rules: in order to give people the tools, now they need to take.
And take away a lot: only in the first year of implementation of the reform of the people under the delay, would wipe 82.2 thousand rubles, and this amount will grow every year. Total men 10 years from (so many need to raise the retirement age by 5 years) will receive more than 820 thousand roubles, and women after 16 years (this period to improve to 8 years) — more than 13 million rubles. And that’s the rating without taking into account the annual indexation of pensions, in fact the amount will be larger. But the state will receive 40 billion rubles a year.
This is all the money people could get, spend on buying food, various goods, thus stimulate the development of production. The economy needed a jump start in the form of free money from people. And the development of industry and the growth of corporate earnings would lead to an increase in salaries and creation of new jobs, which would help to implement the new the may decrees of the President on the welfare and poverty reduction. But it is too complex mnogohodovki to the government. Therefore, money is not, at least, people have fallen under the wheels of reform. But the sluggish economy and the growth of poverty — easily. This may average check in stores already decreased by almost 2% – people prefer to save.
Now, if we had a steady economic growth not dependent on oil prices, as in Germany, the best medicine, as in France, and people’s incomes would allow use of the voluntary pension insurance, then it would be possible to talk about the possibility of raising the retirement age, but with the condition that the age of survival will not fall below 19 years.
But the government decision was made, and the state Duma in the face of “United Russia”, according to tradition, will not be against, and approve the law as soon as possible. Now a very convenient time for carrying out unpopular reforms: people are leaving for resorts and villas, and they are primarily concerned about the garden, and not some bills…
Are officials, of course, inconsistent: introduced additional encumbrance before prepared the way. Or maybe just made sort of “pecking rooster” to themselves for motivation and incentives to work? Because now even more acutely raises the question of economic development to a speedy pace.
In the US, no matter how many above them have either laughed, not afraid to take radical tax cuts, and it gave significant results: in the first quarter of 2018, the company’s profits grew by 14%, investment in equipment grew by more than 5% in the intangible assets — more than 10%, unemployment decreases in the next year to be 3.5%. Such a good unemployment rate has not been since 1969. In Russia, however, the field of application of such measures is wide, and the result can be even more impressive: after a long stagnation is always followed by rapid growth. One has only to give a boost (well, or “bite”) in the right direction…
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