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Refrigerator and demographics

Холодильник и демография

Periods of population decline in Russia coincide with the long and serious decline in the quality of life and, in the background, a decrease in positive expectations in people.

Had to say that in Russia once again clearly marked trend towards population decline. The latest data of Rosstat confirm that the disappointing forecast.

Emerging in 2013, the microscopic increase in the number of Russians (24 thousand people), compared to an annual decline in the previous twenty years at the highest level was perceived as a great victory occurred thanks to the efforts of the “party and government”. Coasting in 2014 and 2015, this growth continued. Moreover, according to Rosstat, as by reducing mortality and increasing the birth rate.

Meanwhile, we remember that in 2014 and 2015 due to a number of reasons — a sharp fall in oil prices, devaluation of the ruble, the imposition of Western economic sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions, our country began a severe economic crisis. However, the increase of its population during these years continued, although at the same (very low) level (30 thousand and 32 thousand, respectively). However, it has its explanation — the demographic processes of inertia. In 2014, children were born, conceived in the relatively prosperous 2013, and in 2015 born in 2014 — a year in the violent mass dizziness Russians from the Crimea “Victoria”.

However, even then the author of these lines, like some experts, talked about the fact that sooner or later the “refrigerator” (really deteriorating economic situation of most Russian families) will triumph over the “TV” (virtual world, created by the Russian government and broadcast channels).

Now we see that this prediction is coming true. Yes, the practice of recent years shows that it is possible for quite a long time to maintain the degree of delight and ecstasy in glorious victory. However, the problem is that the effect of the mismatch of the television picture and of the contents of a personal refrigerator (wallet, Bank account, etc.) sooner or later begins to affect the mind of even the most Patriotic citizens.

Demography in this sense, an ideal and an objective measure of self-awareness of people. It will not disappoint. Genesis sooner or later invades the minds of people in the most unceremonious manner what inevitably to official statistics.

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Let me remind you that according to Rosstat, in 2016, the declining population of Russia amounted to little more than two thousand people. At the moment, yet the annual figures for the entire 2017, however, the data for 10 and 11 months of this year are disappointing. The decline in the population of the Russian Federation in January—October amounted to nearly 115 thousand people and for January—November has 122 thousand people. On the basis of trends in previous years, we can predict that by the end of the year the decline will be even higher. Most likely, the final end of the year you can say that we have received the greatest population decline over the last 6-7 years.

Of course, as is usually done by some experts, to explain the “demographic pit”, a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age (that is the place to be in Russia). However, it is not only that. If we look at the statistics of the last twenty years, we will see that in 2013, 2014 and 2015 in the age of childbearing in Russia has entered is not the largest generation. It is those who, respectively, was born in 1993-95, when the decline in population in Russia fluctuated from 750 thousand to 840 thousand people a year.

At the same time, in 1993, was born 1,378 million children. In 1994 1,408 million, and in 1995 to 1,363 million If we proceed from the hypothesis that the population decline of Russia mainly related to objective changes in the demographic structure of its population and its aging, then in twenty years would be expected in the best case about the same demographic results. However, in 2013 the birth rate totaled 1.895 million in 2014 — 1,942 million, and in 2015 — 1,940 million people.

By 2016, the pattern of fertility is getting worse again. This year there were 1,888 million children — and this despite the fact that the mortality rate in the country since 2011 is about on the same level, varying between 1,900 million per year.

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Now, summarizing demographic results of 2017, apparently, will have to again talk about a precipitous drop in the birth rate in Russia. Anyway, in January-November came to light only 1,556 million babies.

Repeat. One of the “demographic pit” and long-term trends, this collapse cannot be explained. If you look at the long cycles in the past 20-30 years — we can see that the periods of declines in fertility and increased mortality (who, what probably awaits us in the near future), coincide with two other equally important factors — the long and serious decline in living standards and, in the background, a decrease in positive expectations in people. And there is no TV picture will not help.

It is obvious that in the last four years Russia has been a very serious impoverishment of the population, a blow primarily at the Russian middle class, and without that not too numerous, as well as those who are called “working poor.” That is, the sum of the absolute majority of the population.

A reduction in oil revenues due to falling oil prices, devaluation of the ruble by almost two times, the growth in food prices (while the government continues to compensate only the price of the most inferior kinds of bread and some milk, while the cost of all other food commodities has risen very substantially), the lack of any serious indexing revenues finally increasing the debt load of the citizens (despite the fact that most of the new loans taken for repayment of old). Let us not forget ever-increasing military spending and the simultaneous reduction of financing of social sphere.

All this could not affect the standard of living, and accordingly, the expectations of the population. And hence to demography. Do not forget that all this is happening before the presidential election, when the government is trying to give people a positive attitude. One must wonder: what will happen after them?

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