After the big press conference of Vladimir Putin, the media talked a lot about how the President compared Saakashvili and Bulk, what was the face of Sobchak, when she listened to the answer of Vladimir. Unnoticed remained a landmark response to the President about raising the retirement age.
For the first time the President acknowledged that it is possible. In the Russian reality, given what was preparatory “work with people”, experts like Alexei Kudrin, the issue can be considered solved. The only point in time. Putin said that the age limit of retirement, currently in Russia, was identified in the 1930s when life expectancy was much below the present figures. In some other countries, this level has already increased. However, according to him, such decisions should not be a shock, and in any case they will be first discussed.
“Such decisions cannot be taken behind the scenes even at the government level, this should be done openly, with public participation,” — said Putin and added that all changes will not affect those already retired.
The average duration of life, according to demographers, is 71. However, men live on average 67 years. This means that if you raise the retirement age a couple of years the average Russian to live until retirement will not.
This raises the question of why Putin is, in fact, gave the green light to raise the retirement age at the start of his presidential election campaign? And why it passed virtually unnoticed by the media?
— Indeed, the statement passed almost unnoticed — the Director of the Center for political studies University of Finance Pavel Salin. — I think that in the context of the election campaign, it does not hurt Putin. Since the announcement was made in a rather vague form. Even those who listened to these words of the President, embraced them so that this decision will be deferred, that is, reform will occur soon. If Putin is, relatively speaking, would have said that people in the next year pensions will decrease by 15%, this would cause a negative reaction and lowered the rating of Putin. And raising the retirement age can cause a negative reaction at precisely the moment when it will occur, and then only from a certain part of the population approaching retirement age.
In addition, in recent time, the society is morally prepared to that extent. Time and again experts have said that it’s necessary. Based on the aging population, increasing life expectancy. So that part of the population, which oversees it, have adapted.
“SP”: — How fair you think raising the retirement age in our country?
— World practice shows that PAYG pension system itself, without major external investments (income from the sale of hydrocarbons, for example) itself can function effectively only in terms of demographic growth. And when there is depopulation, or there is a relative demographic stability, this system is not effective. From it must be abandoned, or cut pensions or raise the retirement age. Probably, in our conditions would be more effective pension system. However, we have the very power of her own and has compromised the freezing of pension savings. Raising the retirement age — the inevitability faced by all countries that experience demographic problems. Russia is no exception, it all depends on whether or gently this increase will occur from many other conditions.
“SP”: — However, contrary to international practice, to which you referred, we have so far greatly increased life expectancy.
Is Yes. This is a serious problem where you will play opponents of the government, regardless of whether they support pension reform or not. The fact that Russia in its characteristics as it’s “legs wide apart”. A number of indicators, including birth rates, we are among the developed countries. And the other foot we stand among the so-called developing countries, and we with them, in particular, a similar life expectancy. This is a large problem for Russia, although we also observed some increase in life expectancy. However, I’m afraid she will fall, because we have degraded social services, including health care. When the inertial development of the present demographic scenario, we will continue to be in the category of developing countries another ten years, and then risk on these indicators among the countries of the Third world.
— Russian, like most Slavic peoples, retained the mental attitude that a man should bear the main burden of the maintenance of the family, — says Deputy head of the expert Center of the world Russian people’s Cathedral, Vladimir Timakov. — So, incidentally, is not all the peoples of the world. We also believe that the man is the breadwinner, he was ashamed to complain and show weakness. This is reflected in many aspects of life. That is why we have the biggest life-expectancy gap between men and women. This is our strength and our weaknesses.
Here’s the irony — the average life expectancy in Russia it’s time to raise the retirement threshold. However, men live less, and even retire later. So it turns out this imbalance. The average age of male life — 67 years. Let’s say we raise the retirement age by a year and a half, it means that a significant number of men will either not live to retirement, or die in the year of.
“SP”: — is There a way out?
— Of course, you can not raise men, and a little to raise women’s age of retirement. But I think it will not find support in society, due to the mentioned ideological features — say, for the female sex is ashamed to hide. Although from a purely pragmatic point of view, it would be rational.
Perhaps the way out is to equate those women who have not given birth to any child in your life, men. After all, the women we cherish in the first place as mothers. It may be worthwhile to establish the relationship — the more children, the sooner a woman can retire. To some extent it refers to men, because the more a person has children, the more it contributed to a private pension because it is tax his children will form their pension.
We have a problem now in that the elderly have a low number of children. The generation that is now retiring, have left few descendants behind. When the Soviet Union established a pension for two old men had an average of four young working people. Now the two older young working less than two.
“SP”: — There is danger that the duration of life, which after a disastrous nineties rose slightly, now again will decline because of falling living standards?
— There are questions to medical reform, but still the overall standard of living is not fundamentally reduced. In addition, the growing literacy of the population, people are careful about their health, find some acceptable form of treatment. Generally the standard of living we have in the country now assumes a greater life expectancy. China, if we talk about the average income, still was a country poorer than us. And life expectancy there are more. Approximately the same picture and in Mexico.
“SP”: — It’s the same country with different climate.
— Yes, the climate there is better. But it is not so radically affected. If in Russia we compare the life expectancy in the Murmansk and Krasnodar, will see that the difference is not so great. But in neighboring Murmansk region Finland, Sweden and Norway the life expectancy is much higher due to the high standard of living. I think that gradually life expectancy, we will rise to 75 years by increasing the health literacy of the population. There is a danger, as I see it, the AIDS epidemic, since the incidence is increasing, and measures taken against it a little. In addition, we have as before considered to be ashamed to get tested or ask your partner — such as it is disrespectful. Now there are medicines, allowing to cure this disease at an early stage.
And if you run this problem, it can lead to a deterioration of the situation with the demographics in the whole country.
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