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No money: Russians threaten debt hole

In July, the Russians got almost 5% less in real income than in June. Overall, for seven months, they grew by only 2.6%. In this situation, the Russians do not have enough money, and they are increasingly taking loans. In 2019, the situation will worsen: inflation will accelerate due to the fall of the ruble and the increase in VAT and real incomes can go in the negative.

The growth rate of real disposable income of Russians (incomes minus the obligatory payments, corrected by consumer price index) slowed. It follows from the data of Rosstat.

In July, compared with June, real incomes and real wages declined by 4.7 and 7.3%, respectively.

Thus, the average monthly wage in June 2018 was 45 840 rubles., while in July — 42 640 RUB.

However, compared to the same period last year, real income in July rose 2%, while real wages increased by 8%. For six months the growth amounted to 2.6% and 8.6%, respectively.

As noted by Rosstat, the average monthly wage most in June 2018 increased for those working in the field of information and communication — 69% compared to the previous year, to 99.6 thousand RUB Decreased salaries in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas (26% to 122.1 thousand rubles).

That the situation with incomes of Russians is not such cloudless as we would like, according to the monitoring of the Central Bank. The Russians have less to save for a Deposit, according to the statistics of the Central Bank.

The Russians are gradually moving away from savings behaviors reported by the Bank of Russia in relation to the liquidity of the banking sector and financem for July 2018.

According to Central Bank estimates, the annual growth of the Deposit portfolio at the end of the second quarter compared with the beginning of this year, excluding the currency revaluation has slowed by 1.5 percentage points to 7.1%.

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“At the current level of interest rates on deposits remain attractive tool of savings. However, with the increasing consumption amid a recovery in economic activity was observed a gradual slowdown in the growth of the Deposit portfolio,” — said in the comments of the regulator.

At the same time Russians began to take more credits. Banks in the first six months of 2018 was given to the Russians by almost 12% of loans more than in the same period last year. The main growth in the loan portfolio due to mortgage programs and car loans.

Consumer credits and the Russians take very willingly. The annual growth of the consumer loan portfolio on 1 July was 17%.

Grow and the amount of money Russians owe. The average size of consumer loans in the second quarter of this year amounted to RUB 196.8 thousand rubles, an increase compared to the same period in 2017, 35.5%, or 51.6 per thousand, reported recently by the National Bureau of credit histories (nbki), referring to lenders that transmit back their data.

Earlier that real incomes of Russians to slow down, warned the experts, and officials.

“Next year is expected to be quite complex from the point of view of adaptation decision-making in the area of fiscal policy,” said the Ministry.

According to published on the website of Ministry “Picture of the economy,” in 2019, the inflation may increase to 4.3%, GDP to grow only by 1.4%, while the growth of real wages will be less than 1%.

While respondents “Газетой.Ru” experts said that the situation may be even worse, predicting that in anticipation of the VAT increase in 2019 the Russians rush for major purchases and rack up credits.

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Given the planned increase in VAT and the acceleration of inflation, some people can make purchases of durable goods at the end of this year and not the next as originally planned, noted Bogdan Zvarych, Vice-President of the Guild of financial analysts and risk managers.

The following year, even major purchases the Russians will delight yourself even less because you’ll have to skimp.

According to the chief economist BCS global markets, Vladimir Tikhomirov, at least in the first quarter of next year real income growth may slow down to zero and even go negative.

Alexey Korenev, an analyst of the company “Finam” in turn believes that if at the end of this year, real incomes will be in the black, then the next year they, like the previous four years, will decrease.

So, in 2017 the real incomes of Russians decreased by 1.7 percent in 2016 and 5.8% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2014, 0.7%. At the same time in 2018 the income of Russians has finally leveled off and began to grow.

Because in the near future, the ruble is likely to weaken, and inflation to rise, real incomes of Russians will likely continue to lose approximately 3-4% per year, suggests the General Director of “Mani Fanny” Alexander Shustov.

“The long-term trend of falling real incomes and consumer activity will continue. The dollar against the ruble by the beginning of autumn may try to touch the 70 mark, and retailers are already beginning to raise prices, watching the signs of the crisis,” he says.

The expert suggests that the reduction in the official real income can not be accompanied by growth in the informal, gray income, as households learned to adapt to low wages and unemployment and actively looking for “the job”, he concluded.

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