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Navalny in the elections – whether to wait for political reform?

Навальный на выборах - ждать ли политической реформы?

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny announced his intention to participate in the presidential elections of 2018. Could it change Russia? Special review Oleg Kashin for DW.

Personal electoral Commission Alexei Navalny in Kirov and is formally disguised as Lenin district court of this city. In 2013, in his hands was the destiny of elections of the mayor of Moscow with the participation of the chief of the Russian opposition. This autumn, when the matter of “Kirovles” was sent back for reconsideration, it was possible to suspect, what is at stake is not a new sentence, and the participation of Navalny in presidential elections in 2018 – the right to run he is deprived of it until then, is still considered convicted in this case. The statement Navalny to participate in elections thus became only a matter of time and now that time has come. In vain Dmitry Peskov in a hurry to convince everyone that the Kremlin refers to the nomination of Navalny “can” – this is impossible to believe.

The last term of Putin

Problem-2018 for the Kremlin, has become an urgent political task. What would be a win-win for the power was the Russian political system, the fact that the elections looked quite so blatant profanity, the Kremlin is not interested. Navalny is a candidate in this sense may prove to be a boon for Vladimir Putin. In this role, he has already spoken once to Sergey Sobyanin, the Moscow mayor today surely it would be more difficult to shift the paving, to carry out the controversial improvement and to introduce paid Parking, if he has not been the convincing victory at the relatively fair election three years ago.

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Putin, who likely will go into another presidential term, obviously tired of being the eternal winner in the friendly opponents like Gennady Zyuganov and Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The presidency is won in the present opposition leader, weighs a lot more. This is especially important given that a new term should be Putin’s last with all its consequences in the political mood of the ruling class.

The climate will change in any case

Of course, any substantive arguments on the topic of the benefits the candidate Navalny the Kremlin, conspirologic and unconvincing. The weak point of any cunning plan that is – its terms are nowhere recorded and kept confidential, and objective reality becomes exactly what is going on in the public field.

However, it is argued that the candidate Navalny will pull in the policy under anti-Putin slogans hundreds of thousands or even millions of people. This in itself will be enough serious political reform, which, though not questioning the power of Putin will change the country. At least, she will lead Russia out of its current moral and political impasse in which power rests on an exotic combination of police power and ideological ultraconservatism. In the end, from decrepit authoritarian systems is often a chance to peacefully transform itself into something more acceptable to society, appears to be more advanced than power.

In this sense, the task and the Bulk, and very many in Putin’s environment can be shared. The need to exit the coordinate system in which the state-owned company know how to put the Ministers and the political agenda often forms the notorious biker have of the authorities. The participation of Alexei Navalny in the elections are quite capable of this need to implement.

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Politics without romance

Yes, it’s not romantic and not revolutionary, but revolutionary romanticism – the latest, what is needed today both Pro-government and opposition item. It is all about a return to forgotten values of rallies on Bolotnaya, when it is loyal citizens require very little: to “United Russia” behaved a little more modest, and that the CEC has maintained at least a minimum of decency.

Navalny that the Kremlin propaganda loved to scare the townsfolk as a threat to revolutionary chaos, will be the most reliable of the available of insurance against political unrest. His role in this play and the coalition of ultra-conservatives and ultra-liberals, which inevitably goes against him. Those who believe critics agents of the West, and those who will take Bulk to a radical nationalist, will clearly demonstrate the lack of an alternative political reform in the form of elections released on Bulk. In any case it will change the political climate in the country. And the changed climate is always excitement and new opportunities, which now knows neither Bulk nor those of the people in the Kremlin, from which (of course from them, not from the court in Kirov), and depends on his participation or non-participation in the presidential elections of 2018.

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