Calculations conducted by scientists from Germany and Belgium, the prospects of the Russian national team has estimated in 0.1%.
German and Belgian scientists using mathematics to reveal the winner of the world Cup, the results are published on the website ArXiv.org (pdf). So, mathematicians have analyzed 100 thousand variants of development of events at the tournament, the researchers took into account: the GDP of the participating countries, the age of the players, ratings, teams, and many other factors.
In order to calculate the probability of winning each of the 32 teams, mathematicians have used a method of ranking and the random forest algorithm (random forest), where each “tree” is sort of a scenario, the “leaves” are the events themselves, and the “branches” – conditions.
Scientists examined more than one hundred thousand various scenarios, taking into account the ranking of the national teams, age of players, number of players, who play in the Champions League, as well as GDP of the participating countries and their populations.
Mathematics came to the conclusion that the favorite of the tournament should be considered Spain, the country’s chances of victory are at 17.8%. It is followed by Germany (17.1%) and Brazil (12.3 per cent). According to scientists, Germany has more chances to meet in the 1/8 finals of the a strong enemy, so its performance is just below the Spaniards. The chances of the German national team greatly increased after reaching the quarter-finals.
Prospects of Russian national team of mathematics assessed is not very high: only 0.1%.
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