The author is chief analyst of the National Association Blockchain.
In order to study some phenomenon or the phenomenon — the first thing we need to study the environment, the context; you need to climb a few floors up and look around the landscape in all its diversity.
As you can see — features the top 5 largest companies by market cap has varied from year to year. What remains the same? The growth of the so-called “digital platform” digital platforms. The big players of the past — oil companies, financial institutions — replaced by a “virtual entity” Apple, Google (aka Google), Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook.
What they have in common? First of all, this is a huge mill, the wings of which capture end user and immersed in their ecosystem.
The ecosystem allows you to radically reduce costs when transferring from one independent player (this player may be in the company of Logistika a means of payment, advertising channel, …) to another player. All that until recently was a partner conglomerates in one huge pot. In fact, a marketing boiler in which the capitalization of the company consisted of two variables: the number of target consumers(commit task action for six months or a year: the purchase of goods or services, subscriptions to anything) and the cost per target consumer.
Correlate with today’s Russian realities: at the time of writing the market capitalization of the largest player — Sberbank — was just over $ 77 billion. The whole stock market is now valued at just under $ 200 billion, and the capitalization of the main player of the stock market — Bitcoin is 117 billion dollars.
<ins>what are some major “bricks” are the main “digital platform”?</ins>
Report Activate for 2016 shows a rough scheme:
As we have seen these players play on a huge Board, and it is based on Consumer Journey (“journey of the consumer”) and is its critical support in this journey.
At the beginning of this means of access (highlighted in the propiertary hardware; operating systems; browsers; cloud services). This is a beginning on which to create the so-called “digital double” (digital twin) — user removed “measurements”, the main characteristics of behavior.
Further, as immersion and familiarity with the consumer — the “digital measurements” is enriched by stage Discovery (research): using search queries, virtual assistants, social communication in advertising technology. The “digital double” of the consumer is infinitely “adjusted” — revealing his habits, tendencies, forecasts are consumption.
After profiling the user’s digital platform to join with him in consumer communication: this is payment services, electronic Commerce (showcase with selected sentences), targeted materials according to the tastes and habits.
So the process of symbiosis of the huge consumer masses and digital platforms has intensified; growing and capitalizing on digital platforms.
But the question arises — what next? And where does cryptoamnesia?
Take, as an example, e-Commerce.
In Russia e — Commerce (online trade) was the largest in Danish segment of the digital economy: at the end of 2016 the total turnover of sales of Russian companies to the Russian consumer (“domestique sales”) amounted to 650-750 billion, with a growth of tens of percent from year to year.
It is clear that within the ultimate sale of goods to the final consumer are “Packed” all the links in the chain: marketing, advertising, logistics, payment services (acquiring), hosting, development, warehousing, etc.
But as we saw earlier, electronic Commerce is just one of the 12 component interaction with the consumer. By itself, the retail sector is not able to restore the other 11 component.
And here comes into force cryptome. Unique?
At its core, it relies on the so-called “consensus” (trustless consensus). How is it different from the ordinary relations of counterparties, partners? The fact that each of the parties does not trust each other — as was customary until recently. All parties have to agree to the terms of the underlying blockchain (distributed registry).
What solutions are possible around the retail segment?
Client payments. Digital platform in itself has the opportunity to reduce the cost of the transaction: payments inside WeChat or Alipay 4 times cheaper than credit cards.
B2B payments. SWIFT considering the use of distributed register (blockchain) for the interbank payments and settlements for supply chain. In the research pool included 22 global banks.
“Product genealogy”. The consumer, for its part, is able to see full details of motion in the instance of goods throughout the production chain: from the plant to the cycle of consumption and possession.
Digital advertising: International Advertising Bureau, the largest network Agency and NASDAQ are trying to curb the huge flow of data (large, very large) of data in a predictable format.
Thus, the blockchain and tryptomer begin to perform the role of the “glue” that holds each of the current leader. This is the only “glue” is not within the ecosystem of digital platforms, and magically rendered in sociable, aggressive, endless world all kinds of relationships.
It is with this hope that watch “private digital platforms” starting the countdown. There is increasing hope that cryptome with his idea of “consensus” will give support for the revolutionary breakthrough of the relationship of the consumer and the manufacturer.
Let’s see what are the dynamics of various segments of the Runet. Take a few dozen sites (or ten thousand, as in the case with the segment of electronic Commerce) and estimate the dynamics of growth for the second and third quarters of 2017, compared to 2016:
E-Commerce Russia: growth in visits of +7.5%.
Aliexpress Russia: +19.6%. Devoid of regulatory attention from Russian authorities digital platform continues to capture the attention (and money) of the Russian consumer.
Avito (C2C segment): high base and the actual monopoly — loss of 5.2 percent. It may be a signal that the process of transfer of goods from Aliexpress (regions, super low checks) on Craigslist preostanovlena.
Mobile banking: +106%.
Sites pharmacy +24.4%: the area where the legislature banned the sale of medicines by remote way (you can reserve the meds and get your product in the ordinary licensed pharmacy).
Federal authorities of the Russian Federation: +5.16% (the sites of the Federal bodies of Executive power).
Mediacurrent (news and press): +8.1%
The crypto currency exchange, Russians visited: +266%.
How can we evaluate those numbers, this phenomenon?
Stand on the point of view of any large businessman, and investor. Or — state. What interests him mandatory?
Market volume (Vрынка).
Market dynamics (dVрынка).
Percentage of product or solutions on the market (%Vрынка).
Based on these data, the investor decides how he will communicate with the market: to increase its presence in the market or reduced market share; reduced or if the market is growing (and — most importantly — why)?
From the point of view of the state the question somewhat differently. What is the size of the potential tax base? A number of people involved in the process, how large is the coverage?
If in the case of e-Commerce market (and trade) are less clear (there are many research agencies) in the case of cryptoamnesia no such information. Nobody really knows: whether it is necessary to count? No sooner do? Recoup any funds for research?
The essential hypotheses and preliminary calculations.
For this we’ll take one of the important points of crypto currency exchange.
In the world a few hundred kryptomere. Vosmom the largest of them (45 crypturi) and count up.
September 2017. Unique number of Russian visitors to the resource blockchain.info made 672810. We can assume that the same visitor doesn’t use a single solution, and is always studying the competitive field for making its decisions (entry, withdrawal, trade). Judging by the structure and the coefficients of the possible intersections, we can conclude that the number of unique visitors kryptomere from Russia is around 1.1–1.5 million people.
Research Agency NAFI conducted a sociological study in which about 5 million people say that they know what “bitcoin”, “cryptocurrency”.
It turns out that the estimate of 20% penetration of “know” and “use” — is quite plausible.
Of these 1.3 million unique visitors from Russia approximately 200-250 thousand people have a deeper level of immersion: the ownership of the funds in cryptocurrency.
The total amount of funds in the hands of the Russians at the end of September 2017 can be estimated at 800-900 million dollars. It is about 0.5% of the capitalization of the entire stock market.
A lot or a little? You can try to compare with such a tool as IMS (individual investment accounts).
As you can see, natural the cryptocurrency market coverage and involvement — has already surpassed this investment mechanism, despite all the warnings of the regulators (primarily the Bank of Russia).
What’s next? Then we can dive into the area of predictions.
Only in Runet about 24 million customers online (who buy goods or services online, remotely). This traditional retail. Number of holders of cryptocurrency is about 200-250 thousand people, a ratio of 1:100.
With growth on the order (up to 2-2.5 million people) certainly will decrease the volume of investment for one investor. But from the point of view of the regulator can be important and that the increasing coverage of the speech can go about hundreds of billion of funds transferred in cryptocurrency — with the minimum requirements and obligations for disclosure of sources of investments.
The transition to “distributed digital platform” can become uncontrollable, when you are ready “captainvalor” to bear relevant risks. In exchange for what?
In exchange for the opportunity to build their ecosystem of consumption.
In it lurk the most intriguing horizons of the new world.
Especially for the “Russian world”
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