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In June there was a record collapse in consumer sentiment

В июне произошел рекордный обвал потребительских настроений

Consumer moods of Russians for 10 years as negative. Last time compatriots gave a positive assessment of their financial situation in 2008. A bright future the Russians stopped believing and waiting for a new crisis.

The market research center of the Institute for statistical studies and Economics of knowledge, HSE presented an overview on consumer sentiment of the population of Russia in the second quarter of 2018. The Russians were asked about personal financial situation and ability to spend earnings on themselves, relatives and friends.

The composite index of consumer sentiment (ICS) has retained the value of the previous quarter minus 8%. That is, the Russians do not feel confident that they can safely spend the income.

But the slice of sentiment over the past 12 months proved to be dynamic.

Improvement in personal financial situation over the last 12 months stated 12% of respondents, and a decline of 27%.

These data are consistent with the official staticice, signaling that the real incomes of Russians fell for the last four years. In the past year — 1.7%, despite the fact that growing salaries. Nominal wages increased last year by 7.2% in real terms — by 3.4%.

Bright future will not come

The Russians also asked to assess the prospects for the next year. As it turned out, improvements in personal financial situation expected 13%, and deterioration (16 per cent in the previous quarter — 14% and 16%).

Positively praised the event for the year changes in the Russian economy, 19% of respondents, negative — 31% (in the previous quarter to 19 and 30%).

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I do not see prospects for economic growth 20% and see 25%. Positive changes in the Russian economy in a year, expect 25% of respondents, negative — 20% (in the previous quarter to 19% and 23%).

Experts note that over the past two and a half years have seen almost continuous trend of gradual improvement in consumer sentiment.

“But the trajectory of the indicator did not go beyond the zone of negative values, the respondents mainly negatively evaluated actually occurred and expected in the next twelve months changes in the economy and personal financial situation”, — said in the review the HSE.

The positive (and very low) values of the indicator reached only a few times in the nearly twenty years of surveys, it was in 2007 and 2008.

Recall that the global economic crisis spread to Russia in August 2008.

But for the first time in two and a half years, identified a deterioration in economic sentiment among young people (16-29 years), traditionally tuned more optimistic.

Even in this age group, mood to consume and waste decreased from the previous quarter by 2 percentage points to minus 4%.

Not in the mood

The review indicates how the Russians believe the current time is favorable for large purchases. The index in the second quarter has remained virtually unchanged at minus 22%. Index of favorability of conditions for major purchases, growing from the second half of 2009, collapsed after 2014, and in 2015-m showed the worst reading since 2009.

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What can we say about major purchases, if the Russians continue to save on ordinary. For the third straight month the average check amount for one trip to the store is reduced, and in June 2018 it decreased to may by 1.5%, said the research center “ROMIR”.

By the end of June the rate of decline stood at 13 rubles, having lost in comparison with may 8 rubles.

The index of favorable conditions for savings also remains in negative territory — minus 33%. And curve inauspicious time for savings is virtually identical to the curve for large purchases.

Both of these figures though, and showed in recent years upward trend, but only within the zone of negative values, clarify HSE experts. The majority of survey participants still did not consider current economic conditions suitable to purchase expensive items (TVs, refrigerators, cars, real estate) and capacity savings.

The share of assessments “very favorable” situation for shopping does not exceed 0.7%, and no respondents characterized their financial situation as “very good” to actively spend or to save.

The majority of survey participants were unanimous in their views on the prospects for consumer inflation over the next 12 months: approximately 85% of the expected rise in prices of goods and services, only 13% relied on the constancy of prices and 2% on a slight decrease.

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