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In Iran winter blooms “a Persian spring”?

В Иране зимой зацветает "персидская весна"?

When news agencies began to send messages about “egg protest” (increased the price of this product) in the Iranian city of Mashhad, few experts gave important. Only after the protest movement began to spill over and major Metropolitan areas — Tehran, Rasht, Kermanshah, Isfahan, Hamadan, when the Western media gave the qualification that in the country “are the most massive 2009 anti-government protests” (though without specifying the number of protesters), the question arose about what is happening in Iran.

In this country, as in any other middle East region objectively there are complex socio-economic problems and political, can cause irritation of citizens. It’s not a secret. Protests in Iran happened before, it must be borne in mind that for many years the Iranians have lived under international sanctions. This time, judging by incoming reports, activity, first, try to give an organized character, the protests are being actively discussed in social networks, political demands. Second, the current anti-government protests on the anniversary of the demonstrations organized in 2009 in support of Iranian opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi, which seems to be lets give the identification of what is happening in Iran. Recall that in June 2009, the disturbance was caused by purely political problems: people took to the streets after the official announcement of the presidential elections, won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Performances of supporters of Mousavi, which was attended by several thousand people, was held under the slogans “Down with the dictator!” and “Death to the dictator!”. Mousavi has taken a reformist position and criticized the conservative Ahmadinejad, who “worsened relations with the United States and Israel and has jeopardized the country’s economy”.

And today? Iranian is traditionally divided existing in Iran political parties the conservatives (supporters of the hard principles of the Islamic revolution); the moderates (supporters of the current President Hassan Rouhani); the reformers (supporters of more liberal views on the development of the state and society). And the conclusion, albeit superficial, here this: now the protest movement is directed against, it seems, the strengthening of Iran’s conservatives. But confuse the slogans of the protesters. So, in Mashhad, the crowd shouted “No Gaza, no Lebanon, my life for Iran!”. That is against the foreign policy of Tehran, which has a direct bearing on the President Rouhani. Even the slogan “We are Aryans, not Arabs, instead of solutions for Syria — decisions for his country!”. The protesters demanded to stop supporting movements Hezbollah and Hamas chanted “Death to Rouhani!” and “the Shah of Iran back to Iran!”. In some cities, calling for the release of political prisoners, demanded that Iranian opposition groups from abroad.

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All this allows to speak about a possible appearance in the Iran factor “third force” and the complexity of the political situation in the country. As suggested by the first Vice-President of Iran, Asshat Jahangiri, these unnamed forces “will try to ride the wave of protest”. However, it is no secret that the administration of U.S. President Donald trump sees promising to begin the process of reformatting Iran. This will be achieved through direct or covert intervention in the internal Affairs of the country in the use of techniques of “soft power” and relying on some neighboring Arab countries, which see Tehran as a geopolitical opponent. That’s why important external background. So, trump personally supported anti-government protests in Iran. Yesterday the White house confirmed the existence of agreements between the U.S. and Israel to counter Iran. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing an anonymous representative of the American administration said that Tehran is “part of an ongoing process that will take weeks and months”. And that’s “not its culmination.” Therefore can hardly be considered a coincidence the start of the protests in Iran with us-Israeli understandings, when, according to U.S. Secretary Rex Tillerson, Washington “ceased to build its policy against Tehran is full of faults around the nuclear deal” and now “struggling with the totality of threats from Iran”. High probability that at this stage the US is trying to find the Achilles ‘ heel of Tehran, to find the vulnerability of the ruling regime to use them in further attacks.

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Although the currently available material does not allow us to conclusively say that external forces are involved in what is happening. Not clear on what internal forces in Iran, they rely on who are going to bet, who to provide political, organizational, financial and informational support. From official statements and comments of the White house to make conclusions impossible. In addition to the General arguments about the need for “human rights” upon Washington while that jeopardizes the position of President Rouhani, refusing to abide by in July, 2015 nuclear deal and to continue the lifting of sanctions against Iran in exchange for forgoing the development of nuclear weapons. It can untie the hands of the Iranian conservatives against reformers. But who vs who now “plays” in Iran is not quite evident. It is unclear how Tehran was ready to attempt to destabilize the situation. If you believe the BBC, “the authorities were taken by surprise by anti-government protests.” Iranian state television reports about the huge number of participants speeches and actions are associated “not only with rising prices”.

In the broad context, when the middle East continue to mount numerous crises, violation of domestic stability in Iran could be a catalyst for new adverse events and in the neighboring States of Iran. It seems that the main events have only just begun.

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