The main winner in the war in Syria can be considered Iran. The Iranians are in control of a land corridor to the Mediterranean, passing through Iraq and Syria near the Israeli border on the Golan plateau and along the Syrian border with Jordan, Iran now has a military air and naval base in Syria. Thus was formed a fundamentally new reality in the middle East, and the Israeli government cannot tolerate. All the negative strategic changes that the Israeli leadership is put up in the past (for example, the strengthening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas government in Gaza) eventually led to a war from which Israel came out clear winner.
New placement of Iranian forces in Syria represents a real progress in the creation of the “missile blockade” of Israel, which the Iranian leader Khamenei has a reliable method of destroying the Jewish state. Sooner or later Tehran will not resist the temptation to use its strategic advantage gained as a result of the Syrian conflict. Israel can also come in yourself and set your forbidden lines in Syria. Anyway, the situation leads to Iranian-Israeli clash in Syria or Lebanon. In the ground war by Israel would be able to win. After a long battle, Hizbollah and Shiite militia will lose a large number of soldiers temporarily, as long as Israel will not be forced to retreat and lose control over the territory. However, the Israeli home front will suffer the most serious way — even if only a small fraction gained in Lebanon’s missile capabilities will be used against Israeli civilians. It should be recalled that part of the missiles in Lebanon and Syria are highly accurate and powerful explosive potential. The IDF will not be able to shoot down all the missiles.
The end of the war, despite all the successes of the IDF in the land battles will look like an Israeli victory. Blow that will be struck in the rear, neutralises the success of the army. After the war the overall balance of forces in the region will not change Israeli deterrence will not become stronger. The world will see pictures of the destroyed high-rise buildings in tel Aviv and the dead bodies of citizens, not soldiers of the IDF, Madrugada flag at the position of “Hezbollah”. The strategic results of such a war will be minor compared to the price you have to pay for it.
There is a chance to prevent such a development by a fundamental change in the formula for containment. Israel now States that if you hurt the Israeli home front will be destroyed civilian infrastructure of Lebanon. Is anyone in Tehran is not impressed. And all decisions are made there, not in Beirut. If the Christians, Sunnis and even Shiites of Lebanon is not water and electricity — the Iranians to cry will not. In the Syrian conflict, Tehran has demonstrated that Lebanon is nothing more than Armory. It is possible to restrain Tehran only direct threat to him. Israel must make it clear that if you hurt the Israeli home front will be totally destroyed the entire infrastructure of Iranian oil exports, the only source of Finance of the Islamic Republic.
Israel has the technical capability to do this. Only this can bring Iran to its knees. It is necessary to prevent a war with Hezbollah, directed by Iran. This war has no strategic meaning for Israel.
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