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Good news on the eve of Putin’s re-election

Радостные вести накануне переизбрания Путина

The closer March 18, the more powerful the stream of good news. The consumer does not have time to get one as the next appears.

Responsible persons for a long time was criticized for blandness and uncreative approach to the preparation of the people for the March election ceremony. I remember he joked on them. And now it’s time to admit wrong.

State machine started downright gush wonderful news, designed to deliver maximum pleasure to the greatest possible number of people. And the fact that these “gifts” were in no hurry to put on the shelves early, due to the wise understanding that the shelf life of most of them. To cover people right now until March 18 for the last few weeks.

Nice to see that not forgotten intellectual needs of the various strata of our population.

For example, to confess the conspiracy launched in the widest circulation weblog text “Soros conceded defeat in the struggle with Russia.” The contents do not need to repeat because of its obviousness.

Glad tidings about the alleged failure of American financier was in one fell swoop, played countless a variety of online resources appropriate profile. One — literally, but other, more creative, colourful editorial clarifications and revised headline: “Soros and the Rothschild admitted defeat in the war with Russia.”

But this is a pure enthusiasts conspiracy theories always tend to overreact. Impeccable and professionals of the official RIA Novosti simply reproduced the original material under the heading “opinion” and, judging by the number of readings, and lifted the spirits of a few hundred thousand conspiracy-minded citizens.

However, this proverb. Much more interesting, in my opinion, an attempt to advertise powerful source of prosperity in our sad, the General view was that economic reality.

Not to say that each of iron, but from almost all the major media resources, formal and informal, synchronous sounded quite delightful news: for the first 11 months 2017 non-oil and non-energy (i.e. not including oil, gas and petroleum products) Russian exports grew by 20.8% against the same cut in 2016 and reaching $116 billion. is not it a triumph?

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However, the question immediately arises: why not wait for the outcome for all of last year? Then it would be cheered. Answer: these results will be announced in a month. The campaign can’t wait that long. She is, after all, you know, own schedule not coinciding with the rhythm of work analytical and statistical services. Plan good news you need to perform daily.

However, industry Minister Denis Manturov said at the Gaidar forum that the non-oil export for 2017 increased by 19%. Technically, he still cannot know it exactly. But why should not we believe the Minister? Let us believe — and derive the value of the above exports are not in the first 11 months of 2017, but for all 12.

For this we turn to the source of information on the aforementioned eleven-miracle. All who report of him, refer to data “JSC “Russian export center” (REC). This organization, in addition to addressing its other objectives, analyzes and publishes monthly information on the size and the structure of Russian exports. Another report just came to hand and was publicized with all the power agitmashiny.

We use other information published by REC, and here’s what we know. In 2012, the Russian non-commodity non-energy exports amounted to $144 billion For 2013 — $142 billion For 2014 is about $138 billion In 2015 to $118 billion In 2016 to$109 billion, That is, from 2012 to 2016, it decreased by 1.32 times.

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Now back to the numbers Manturov. If last year the exports increased by 19%, in 2017, it reached $130 billion, i.e. was larger than in 2015 — 2016, but is substantially less than in the pre-crisis 2012 2014. Where is the triumph? Where is “slezhenie the oil needle”? Compared to the pre-crisis years, we see a step back, though noticeable.

Not to mention the fact that non-oil non-oil exports of our country consists mainly of metals — ferrous and non-ferrous, grain, lumber and other products of a low degree of processing. Only a third of that of exports, according to the optimistic assessment of the REC, — products of high degree of processing. Revenue from sales of products in this category in 2017 was definitely less than $50 billion.

A lot or a little for an economy like Russia? Let’s not compare with the giants of world trade — with China or Germany. Comparable to several small or, at best, medium-sized countries, the export of which is confidently dominated by non-oil products.

In 2017 (all data preliminary) exports to Taiwan reached $345 billion (an increase compared to 2016-11%), Thailand — $228 billion (+7%), Ireland 225 billion (+9%), Poland — $221 billion (+14%). As you can see, the scope of participation in international non-oil trade here is very different. Especially when you consider that the value of each of these economies much smaller than ours.

Partial modest post-crisis recovery of Russian exports of manufactured goods even before the final results hastily issued for the great triumph that the state propaganda is trying to drive into the brains of people.

Many more such triumphs will be constructed prior to March 18, is to then immediately be forgotten as unnecessary and expiration date.

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