The growth of the Russian economy, which Rosstat captures three consecutive quarters at the Federal level, still not noticeable in most regions. This was stated by the experts from the Higher school of Economics.
As reported in the “Review of the state and business”, in the area of sustained recession remain almost 60% of subjects of the Russian Federation — 49 out of 85.
The depression of the economy outside of the Federal centre continued for the second month in a row. In April the composite index of regional economic activity fell from 49 to 47.1 points, showing a minimum value since December of last year.
Only 12 subjects of the Russian Federation showed an increase of at least 4 of 5 key sectors of the economy. At the same time, decline was observed in 18 regions, which account for one-third of the gross regional product of the country. The most problematic regions — the Novgorod region, Chuvashia, Perm Krai and Buryatia, said the Deputy Director of the “development Centre” higher school of Economics Sergei Smirnov.
According to him, in such staticice to talk about the beginning of the recovery “is hardly correct”. The share of the regions in which grow four or five sectors, remains significantly lower than characteristic for a phase of strong economic growth, he said.
Particularly affects the sectors focused on consumers whose incomes fell during the crisis, retail trade and construction. Their regional activity index fell to 39 and 41 points.
The growth observed in industry, but she works mainly on the export or procurement.
“Obvious signs of acceleration remains to be seen. Speech can go only about the return to pre-crisis stagnation, which is characteristic for 2013-2014 years”, — said Smirnov.
In December the international rating Agency S&P predicted that by 2018, every fourth Russian region may be on the verge of default. Now the duty of each of the third region exceeds a critical level defined by the budget code — 50% of revenues.
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