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Erdogan has forced Putin to abandon Idlib

The Syrian Arab army for the past two months preparing to release “the last stronghold of the opposition” in their country. Talking about the province of Idlib, which Damascus lost almost at the beginning of the civil war.

During the years of the conflict, who’s just not hosted. At first, the division of territories was carried out between the free Syrian army and the Kurds. The latter is not particularly rested, and quickly lost what was claimed. And then safely removed in Northern Aleppo.

But “the triumph of the deserters” (namely, former military men, who fled from the forces of Assad, originally formed the free Syrian army) was short-lived. Almost every day they were split off small groups, declaring that they are the “true” opposition, Riyad Asaad (former rebel leader who defected in 2011 from the government army — ed.) — a traitor. In parallel, the increasing popularity gaining extremist groups, and how have local origin or foreign.

One of the first this trend was probing al-Qaida, which is rumored to have spent on its Syrian projects more than a billion dollars. The heirs of the deeds of bin Laden took advantage of the extremely unstable situation in Idlib. And eventually managed for a short time to create a powerful “subsidiary”. The child was given the name “dzhebhat an-Nusra”. It is terrorizing Syria since December 2011, albeit under different names.

While the terrorists themselves, like their more moderate counterparts, also failed to avoid a split. From the “Front EN-Nusra” has occasionally spun off similar to the ideology of gangs, but hostile “parent” organization.

Thus between terrorists and so-called “armed opposition” the constant exchange of personnel, not only at the level of ordinary soldiers. So, one of the former leaders Interskol “dzhebhat an-Nusra” Hussam Salama is now one of the leaders of the so-called “National liberation front” — a coalition of non-terrorist opposition groups in the North-West of the Syrian Arab Republic. In any case, neither in Russia, nor anywhere else that banned organizations do not consider.

In General chaos. And this eventually led to the fact that in 2014, in Idlib there is no more or less influential groups who can claim to spread power to the entire province or at least most of it. Of course, the “Islamic state” only made the problem worse.

When pseudohalide came to an end, the first for the province decided to take on the Turks. Not to say that they had achieved a great diplomatic success — the unconditional support they showed only significantly weakened the free Syrian army: it was a matter of survival. The rest, with rare exception, had to be forced into the Union by military force.

Ankara has long sent its troops in Idlib, however, in a small amount, but it was enough for a bit of a war with terrorists and the opposition. These micro-operation was originally required for the liberation of the territories where later was erected the base and the posts of Turkey. And then by force had to achieve security around most of these posts, observation points and databases. Such measures Turks “forced” many of the gang to loyalty, but rather here, too, there is something from natural selection.

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The situation began to change dramatically at that time Damascus, together with Russia has begun to sweep the “cradle of the revolution” — the province of Dar. It was obvious that after this will come the turn of Idlib. And all in the North-West of Syria abruptly moved.

Opposition parties, said earlier that Turkey restricts their freedom and arrested the leaders, suddenly began to call Ankara as its main protector. Well, it seems to have. No one tried to stop the operation from Damascus to Idlib, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Americans are no match for him in this case — was limited to a few statements, then completely pulled away, and Pompeo even managed to maintain the position of the Russian Federation immediately after our videoconferencing smashed several terrorist targets in the designated province. So if someone saves anti-government militants, only Erdogan.

Well, I must admit, he is doing well. Our military in the beginning of September struck dozens of air strikes on Idlib, and like it was supposed to mark the beginning of a full-fledged attack of the land forces of Assad. But a day passed, then a week. The second outcome, and the Syrian Arab army and its allies still stand along the border of the opposition’s possessions. It is obvious that neither Putin nor Erdogan did not want to aggravate the situation in the run-up to September 7, when they both went to Iran to discuss the Syrian problem. But since it’s also been a lot of time. In any case, the soldiers prigotovitsya to attack.

It seemed that was able to negotiate. But not in favor of this said the transfer of Turkey’s tanks and other heavy weapons in the troubled governorate. Finally, on 17 September it became clear that Erdogan and Putin agreed to leave everything as is. With the only only difference between “rebel” and “government” areas will now be a demilitarized zone.

It is remarkable that another bloodshed was avoided, and many innocent lives will be saved. Only this strange truce does not really fit in with the General plan of Moscow and Damascus to bring Syria into the borders in which it was before the civil war. Moreover, a couple of days ago, Syrian government officials said about the imminent return of Idlib. And now we have a “second Korea”, only with the prospect of joining one of its parts to Turkey.

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Ankara has joins Syrian Affleck. Probably. in Idlib she has similar plans. Because everything else looks meaningless — Assad will not be overthrown, therefore, the opposition (especially disarmed, and the Turks promise to make it exactly that — ed.) no chance to prevail. Why did Moscow allow it?

Our source in the leadership of the Russian Federation reports that this plan has previously been discussed. The conflict actually frozen for a time that will be spent on the recovery of those provinces that is now in control of Damascus. Moreover, the recovery will happen in several stages. Damascus is the priority, followed by will the districts located in relative distance from the zone of contact with hostile forces.

That is, Deir-ez-Zor and Aleppo, despite their strategic importance, will have to wait. Money for the restoration is still not found, but something already agreed to give the Iranians. The Chinese are in the queue, only now they are waiting for the Syrian authorities to negotiate with the Kurds over oil fields.

Now negotiations are in full swing, but they actively intervene States. For Russia, however, such a solution is now the most convenient. First, Ankara has promised to prevent a chemical attack, which was discussed so much. Second, at a meeting held a week ago, Iran supported the idea of Erdogan. So, basically Russia had no choice, otherwise there would be risks, “the triple Alliance” will fail.

Turkish expert keram Yildirim believes that Erdogan and Putin came to the right decision. The main issue for both sides in Idlib were and still are terrorists. We appear to be waiting for a joint operation of Russian and Turkish military in the destruction of “Dzhebhat EN-Nusra” and related organizations. These groups refused to disarm and disband at the suggestion of Ankara, while making regular attacks on members of the Union of Turkish forces on the individual parts of the Syrian Arab army. So that the elimination of this threat in the interests of both States.

About the future of Idlib, while nothing can be said clearly. De Mistura (special representative of the UN Secretary General on Syria — ed.) presented to the representatives of Turkey, Iran and Russia, the so-called “constitutional list” from the opposition (representatives of the opponents of official Damascus, which may be included in a new Constitution of ATS — ed.) but the agreement between the parties on this issue yet. When it is reached, it will be possible confidently to say that the Syrian crisis, including Eliska problem reached the stage of settlement.

Probably mostly this Ankara, Moscow and Tehran are now engaged. By the way, Turkey now considers the Astana main it, not the format of the Geneva talks.

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