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Autumn prepares surprises fuel: gasoline will rise to 50 rubles

From the 10th to the 17th of August, wholesale gasoline prices increased by 7%. It happened for the first time since the end of may this year, when the government adopted emergency measures to stabilize the retail fuel cost. On the one hand, the current rise in prices is associated with the upcoming planned repairs of the refinery. However, experts argue that this situation has arisen from-for falling of ruble exchange rate and, therefore, increase the attractiveness to export the fuel abroad. There are predictions that the price of a liter of AI-95, which since April has increased from 41 to 45.5 rubles, will rise to 50 rubles.

The summer rise in fuel prices, traditionally as experts explain, due to seasonal factors. Many motorists are contained in the autumn and winter, their “iron horses” in the garage or in the Parking lots, now lead them from the stables and harness for garden work. In addition, in summer, many refineries cut production to prevent and repair work, which increases the fuel shortage in the domestic market.

However, another surge in the wholesale cost of fuel, according to experts, not only due to these factors. According to the Executive Director of the Russian fuel Union Grigory Sergienko, the growth of wholesale prices was caused by the depreciation of the ruble, which was observed at the end of July — beginning of August this year. Then the value of the dollar on the exchange increased sharply, from 62 to 68 rubles. As a result, significantly increased the appeal of export fuel. The range of petrol and other finished fuel on the stock exchanges of Russia has decreased significantly, which led to the growth of wholesale prices. “This reminds of the end of April – beginning of may,” — said the expert. We will remind that then, because of rising world energy prices, the cost of fuel on the domestic market of Russia, soared 10% to 13%.

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The increase in wholesale prices in oil refineries, experts say, will immediately lead to a rise in prices gas stations. So it was in may of this year. The wholesale price of fuel on Sankt-Petersburg international commodity exchange from April 28 to may 28 per ton of gasoline AI-92 and AI-95 increased by almost 7 thousand rubles. It is worth noting that the retail cost of a liter of AI-95 in April grew 20 times faster than in January-March combined.

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According to analyst GK “Finam” Alexey Korenev, in 2018, the price of gasoline AI-92 will easily achieve 42 to 45 rubles, AI-95 — 44-46 rubles, and diesel fuel will rise to 44-47 rubles. However, there are other, more categorical forecasts which suggest that by the end of 2018, the Russians should focus on 50 rubles per liter of gasoline.

However, now the officials have an effective means to cope with the “fuel mess”. Russian President Vladimir Putin, and free the previous price of gasoline, approved a law allowing the government to introduce prohibitive duties on the export of oil abroad, when the price of fuel in Russia because export growth is rapidly increasing. I mean, if prices at the pump will rise sharply, the state fiscal methods to put obstacles in the way of rampant the cost of fuel. Will it work this mechanism in practice will become clear in the coming weeks.

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