On the eve of presidential elections Vnesheconombank in its report has given the forecast on the growth of the pension age from 2020. Say, you leave the country do not. If you leave everything as it is, that soon the shortage will reach $ 2 trillion. rubles.
This kind of publication appears more and more that tells about the preparatory campaign. By the way, hurdy-gurdy that the Russians too early to retire, started Kudrin. In his view, if men will work an additional 5 years, and women another 8 years, comes grace. And in 2030 the cumulative financial effect of raising the retirement age can be as much as 7.4% of GDP. And then it will increase the gross national product of the Russian Federation at a rate higher than the world, say the Russians Gaidar.
The first step in this direction is already made: in Russia introduced the point system of calculating pensions. According to the authors, it is, ultimately, should lead to self-regulation and a balanced budget for the FIU. Pensions are calculated in strict accordance with the “points earned” and within the available Fund of the Treasury. That is, if the money in the RPF a lot, and old people, in theory, should not live in poverty. But if is small, for example, in a crisis, do not blame me: all that is, divide by the total number of points that will become the basis for the calculation.
In fact, introducing such rules, the government is planning to withdraw from social security of elderly people, taking on the role of “night watchman” in the economy. And those old men who will be in the area of poverty, according to the plan “of the reformers a La Kudrin” will have to obtain a cheap targeted assistance from the Treasury.
But in order to point the system to work, it must be configured so that a significant portion of the pension has exceeded a living wage. That is why the next step by raising the retirement age is inevitable. Otherwise, targeted assistance will have to pay all, or almost all.
Used for the calculation of multiple regression economic models can produce any result, though positive, even negative. If you need to — “keepers” will select any of the coefficients of the equations, allegedly based on Rosstat data, polls, population census and so on.
And in General, to evaluate the cumulative financial effect of certain reforms in tenths of a percent of GDP, say, by 2030 — it’s like that in the same year to predict the weather with accuracy to one day.
It is interesting that Russian economists, including megalibrary type “Dvorkovich”, understands the absurdity of long-term forecasting. However, its well paid but meaningless work they justify the fact that “all the West is doing it.” Maybe so, but “in the Americas and in Europe,” government clerks have not been paid 7 times more than the national average.
Meanwhile, it is already clear that the point system in Russia today is inhuman in nature. Older people are already starting to refuse pension. At risk are those who have little experience or who for various reasons are not working or received a salary in an envelope. And such “refuseniks” we already have quite a lot to beat the bell. If the retirement age will increase, the account will go on hundreds of thousands, if not millions.
But they give cynical advice — “go hard”, while in the country over the past four years, the number of jobs decreased by 6.5 million.
Interestingly, Kudrin with the gentlemen from the government can offer as an alternative to the “refuseniks” who are over sixty? Maybe the old women to go to the panel? And the elderly — to the laborers? Or all christrianity on the porch? And in General — what is the fault of the country which deprives them of a secure old age?
To take, by the way, the archives of the Soviet period, without which it is often difficult to confirm the experience. The forums are full of angry posts:
“Yes, I worked! Since 1980! In the workbook it’s all there, the experience is already 30 years old, but need help on s/n 5 for any of these years? Here are their then and there”.
“…I as an employee, are not responsible for the record keeping in the organization… Article 39 of the Constitution guarantees social security in old age. Currently, due to the liquidation of the organization, I deprived of the opportunity to request a certificate, which confirmed period of work not included in the seniority”.
But, what people are writing about the “saints of the Yeltsin 90s”.
“I remembered with a friend beginning of the nineties. Just as the University did. Neither her parents nor my mother was not paid a salary. In stores like already products began to appear, and to buy it was. Remember, really hungry”.
“Myself do not mind it, but parents are very sorry, they are all very shattered, destroyed their world and beliefs about themselves in this world… In fact, they have not recovered, do not fit into a new life.”
And in “zero” with white wages, the situation was no easier. Give posts for 2013: “…In interviews I find out that almost all companies use grey schemes of payment of wages, partly on the card (15 000 PE), and the rest in the envelope. And it is in large companies and small”.
“About retirement can forget. I was doubly funny to read the letter from the Pension Fund where I have already transferred considerable sums, that my cumulative honor amount to a few tens of thousands of rubles… Where the rest of the zeros go is a big secret.”
At the business forum “are All paying grey wages” only 21% of respondents in 2013 reported that they received wages white. Others admitted that they took for their work in envelopes. Dissatisfied with this state of Affairs of the employees just pointed to the door. It is possible that the last two or three years the situation has improved, but the last period in fact will not erase.
The loss of Soviet archives, the unemployment 90s and grey salaries “zero” will be hardest hit by the generations who were born in the 60-ies and 70-ies. In the end, these desperate people can generally remain without means of subsistence because they do not gain the least points. Instead of a pension refuseniks can expect except that the allowance for his burial. However, they remember not only the Soviet standard of living, but also a great revolutionary history.
In addition, current arrangements for the calculation of the points lead to their annual depreciation. Many of those now working in “white” will be among the poor elderly. To 10 years to have a little bit of a decent pension, they need to get at least 30 thousand rubles per month with annual indexation of 10%.
However, only 12 of the 85 subjects of the Russian Federation provide its residents with median wages above 30 thousand rubles (data from April 2017). For example, in the Rostov region, the figure is just over 20 thousand rubles, and in the Altai region — 16.3 thousand roubles. If over the past year and there has been an increase, it was symbolic.
Of course, there was formed a layer of heads of budgetary and public establishments (not to mention top-managers of state corporations), which after the abolition of the wage scale live like cheese in oil, receiving crazy wages. Simply because they were allowed to dispose of the salary Fund. Can be no doubt that pensions have to be high.
By the way, 10 years ago, when started this reform, initiated by Kudrin and Chubais, changes in the remuneration of the officials explained the projected increase of efficiency of state structures. Supposedly intelligent professionals, attracted by good jobs, will give impetus to the development of schools, hospitals, municipalities and so on. And they say that it’s not good to our officials in poverty look at the background of Western colleagues. And in General — get more money, they will not steal, and will focus on your case.
Today, for some reason no one from the government did not give a fair assessment of the salary reform. Although its failure does not cause any doubts. And mess with the wages under the scheme “who want to pay” has led to the fact that millions of retirees, including teachers, University professors, doctors, doomed to a miserable pension. As a result, the state is forced to subsidize payment of utilities, spending huge sums from the budget. And where is the efficiency?
Of course, a return to the tariff scale of remuneration will not be a viable alternative to raising the retirement age, however, will increase real pensions are a huge number of Russians. However, in the current political system of coordinates that miracle will not happen.
It is also clear that after the elections the upcoming changes to pensions will become the most serious challenge for the authorities in the recent history of the country. The only reasonable way out of the impasse with the FIU could be a dynamic growth of labour productivity at least by 20%. But it needs is another government of technocrats, able to create new automated and robotic factories. Because the purchase of Western technology, what stopped the Cabinet Medvedev, will have to forget.
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